Gujarat elections: BJP supporters wave celebration flags throughout Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election marketing campaign roadshow for the Gujarat Assembly elections, in Ahmedabad, Friday, Dec.2, 2022.
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The 2017 Gujarat election was a close affair with the winner in additional than 30 seats getting determined by a win margin of lower than 2.5% votes. The win margin is the distinction in votes between the winner/chief and the second-best celebration in a seat. Are the 2022 polls additionally turning out to be comparable? Early tendencies, with simply 50% of the votes being counted, present that that isn’t the case this yr. Right now, the BJP is main/successful in 51 seats by a margin of >30%
Table 1 reveals the variety of seats led/gained by events in 2022 throughout varied vote share ranges. The change in the variety of such seats from 2017 can also be listed. For occasion, the BJP is main/gained in 150 seats as of now. Of them, the win/lead margin is lower than 10% in 25 seats, between 10-20% in 44 seats, between 20-30% in 30 seats and over 30% in 51 seats. Overall, in 2022, in 44 out of 182 seats, the win/lead margin is lower than 10% votes. In 2017, -43 extra seats have been gained with a margin of lower than 10% votes. A pointy enhance in the variety of seats led/gained by >30% votes and a decline in the variety of seats led/gained by <10% votes reveals that this isn’t a close election.
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Table 2 takes a better have a look at the variety of seats led/gained with comparatively fewer votes. Win/lead margins of lower than 2.5% present that the race got here all the way down to a handful of votes. Overall, in 2022, in 12 seats the win/lead margin was <2.5% votes. In 2017, -20 extra seats have been gained with an analogous margin. This determine additionally reveals that this isn’t a close election.
Table 3 reveals the variety of seats led/gained by events in 2022 throughout varied vote margins (in absolute phrases). For instance, in 2022, the BJP led/gained in 1 seats with a margin of <500 votes, it led/gained in 121 seats with a margin of >10,000 votes. Overall, solely in Three seats the win/lead margin was <500 votes.
The story might be up to date when 75% of votes are counted. The observations are based mostly on tendencies at the half-way mark with 50% of the votes counted.