“Nationally significant projects cannot languish in the purgatory of planning and regulatory processes that are not fit for purpose,” Bashir stated. “We have to forge a way forward urgently, focused on accountability, coordination, and rigour.”
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For Australia to succeed in internet zero by 2050, the power market operator calculates the grid wants 10,000 kilometres of additional transmission traces.
But the growth is far behind the place it must be, as transmission tasks run into rising building prices, shortages of abilities and gear, and sturdy opposition from rural and regional communities nervous about impacts on farming practices, property values and the surroundings.
Of the 9 key dedicated transmission tasks, just one – an improve to the Victorian-NSW interconnector generally known as VNI Minor – has been accomplished since 2020.
Delays to one of many greatest, the 900-kilometre EnergyConnect hyperlink between SA, NSW and Victoria, have triggered official warnings of “reliability gaps” rising before initially forecast, and has raised hypothesis within the trade that AGL’s Torrens Island B gasoline plant could also be required to delay its closure past 2026.
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“The next wave of those thermal assets looking at retirement is AGL’s Torrens plant, which has already had a negotiated extension to 2026,” UBS analyst Tom Allen stated. “We see some potential for that plant operating longer.”
There are additionally doubts in regards to the deliberate retirement of different mills, such the ageing Yallourn coal plant in Victoria, which the state authorities is subsidising to function till 2028, however could now be wanted for longer. The NSW authorities in May struck a deal with Origin to delay the closure of Eraring by not less than two years.
“I think it’s all going to be on the table,” stated Matt Rennie, co-chief govt of Rennie Advisory. “When we genuinely have the option of continuing very low-cost supply, it’s going to be something the government is going to find very hard to look past, and that makes meeting decarbonisation commitments quite difficult.”
On high of the necessity to change retiring coal, Rennie stated the necessity for brand spanking new transmission to attach renewables had develop into much more crucial, amid forecasts that power demand would triple as extra houses and factories switched from gasoline to electrical energy and plugged in electrical automobiles.
Transmission delays limiting the renewable rollout had been unlikely to lift the specter of blackouts, Rennie stated, however it could elevate the necessity for “phenomenally expensive” gas-fired era at peak occasions.
“There is not a case that the lights won’t be on, but there is a case that electricity prices can’t be forecast in terms of where they can go,” he stated.
Bashir stated addressing the transmission delays to keep away from adversarial penalties for shoppers would require co-ordination and accountability, together with setting agency supply deadlines in state and federal agreements, figuring out and funding the price of delays, and working with affected communities to enhance social licence.
AGL stated it was nonetheless planning to shut Torrens Island B in June 2026 and flip the location into an industrial power hub. Torrens Island additionally homes AGL’s 210-megawatt Barker Inlet fast-response gasoline “peaking” plant, and the 250-megawatt Torrens battery.
Both are operational and “providing flexible generation and firming capacity for the SA electricity market”, AGL stated. “We continue to engage with all stakeholders including the Australian Energy Market Operator and the SA government regarding the transition at Torrens,” a spokesperson stated.
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