Big M&A and Bob Iger’s future: 13 media executives make their anonymous 2024 predictions

It’s essentially the most fantastic time of the yr! It’s the third annual anonymous media and leisure govt predictions listing!

In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, I requested 12 previous and present executives on the world’s greatest media and leisure firms for one industry-shaking prediction for 2024. And then I requested yet one more as a result of that is the vacation season, and I used to be feeling beneficiant. A baker’s dozen! Actually, I requested a number of extra, however some overlapped.

Quite a number of of final yr’s predictions were accurate. Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger did extend his contract. Christine McCarthy stepped down as Disney’s chief monetary officer. Paramount Global hasn’t offered, however controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is now in talks to sell National Amusements. Google’s YouTube acquired the National Football League’s “Sunday Ticket” package.

Some weren’t pretty much as good. The media {industry} did not bounce again from recession in addition to one govt hoped. Netflix did not merge with one other firm. Apple did not ban TikTook from its app retailer.

Alas, hope springs everlasting with a brand new yr.

Executive 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger, when Discovery mixed with WarnerMedia. That deadline is vital for Reverse Morris Trust tax reasons. Without entering into the boring particulars, the vital half is Warner Bros. Discovery can do one other important deal two years after the shut of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

One govt focused NBCUniversal because the most definitely acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This govt predicted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal in order that the brand new firm would commerce individually. But, Comcast (and Roberts) would maintain a controlling stake of the possession of the brand new entity.

A second govt instructed a extra expansive state of affairs. Comcast will maintain its theme parks enterprise however promote the remainder of the corporate in trade for WBD widespread shares.  Comcast will get a premium for the rest of NBCUniversal in trade for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav runs the mixed firm, with NBCUniversal movie chief Donna Langley staying on to run an expanded studio.

Executive 2: Bob Iger will, once more, prolong his contract as Disney CEO

Earlier this yr, Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract by 2026. Iger has said he actually plans to walk away from Disney endlessly when his contract is finished. Iger has prolonged his contract as CEO to keep away from retirement on 5 totally different events. Of course, when Iger left on the finish of 2021, he said the same thing.

This govt predicted “fool me five times, shame on me.” Disney has many strategic issues that do not have straightforward solutions, akin to determining how ESPN’s enterprise suits in a direct-to-consumer world and easy methods to wind down its legacy TV cable networks. Those issues demand a pacesetter with a gradual hand who understands the {industry}. Is there a greater chief of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has determined, over and over once more, that there’s not. Why would this time be any totally different?

Executive 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their marketing campaign to affix the Disney board

One factor that will stop Iger from extending his contract is that if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Last week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney Chief Financial Officer Rasulo criticized Disney’s failed succession planning as a part of a press release asserting their intentions to run for Disney’s board of administrators when nominees are chosen subsequent yr.

“In our view, Disney’s board has failed to fulfill its essential responsibilities – overseeing the development of an effective strategy, planning for orderly succession, aligning executive pay with performance, and ensuring accountability for operational execution,” Peltz mentioned within the assertion.

This govt predicted Peltz and Rasulo will win their marketing campaign and each be part of the board. A second individual guessed solely Rasulo will get a spot — maybe by way of a settlement earlier than a vote.

Executive 4: Iger will title Dana Walden his successor as Disney CEO

If Iger does go away, he and the Disney board might want to title a successor. I reported in September that Iger plans to call a successor in early 2025 and give that individual about 20 months to prepare for the role. If so, an announcement might are available late 2024. This govt predicted it is going to be Co-chairman of Disney Entertainment Dana Walden who will get the nod. Iger will once more transfer to a md function when Walden takes over as CEO, simply as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.

A second individual threw out a special title to key a watch on: Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Electronic Arts. This could seem out of left area, however this is some inside baseball for you — the identical govt to say Wilson accurately predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. Then final yr, the individual mentioned Chris Licht would not final the yr as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO. Three for 3! So, possibly concentrate.

Executive 5: Disney will purchase Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will place himself as a number one inside candidate to take over for Iger

One final Disney succession prediction! This individual predicted Disney would purchase the privately held Candle Media to accumulate Moonbug Entertainment, the proprietor of CoComelon. Disney would then try to promote the rest of Candle Media’s belongings at firesale costs, the manager predicted.

Candle Media is co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This individual’s guess is Mayer will return to Disney in a senior working function to place himself as Iger’s high successor candidate whereas Staggs would go away the corporate.

Executive 6: NBA rights will go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple

One of essentially the most intently watched media tales of 2024 might be what the National Basketball Association decides to do with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA ideally wants three media companions with totally different packages of video games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Both need to keep carriage relationships with the NBA, although each firms have additionally pressured they are going to be monetary disciplined. The league can be on the lookout for a sturdy streaming choice. This is the place Apple would slot in. (For what it is price, a second govt mentioned he did not suppose Apple would even make a bid for NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal’s Peacock may find yourself with them.)

Executive 7: The College Football Playoff will not get the rights payment improve it desires as ESPN would be the solely important bidder

Other than the NBA, the CFP often is the subsequent most vital rights deal to be renewed subsequent yr. The CFP’s present 12-year cope with ESPN expires after the 2025 playoff.

At that point, the school soccer playoffs will broaden from 4 groups to 12. That could sound engaging as a brand new dwell sports activities behemoth, however this govt guesses that potential bidders Amazon and Apple will balk on the worth CFP desires for the video games. ESPN is determined for dwell rights because it prepares a direct-to-consumer service and will renew the bundle, this govt predicts.

Executive 8: Local broadcast stations take most native NBA, NHL and MLB sports activities rights away from regional sports activities networks

Sticking with the sports activities theme, the regional sports activities community enterprise may or may not be collapsing. Broadcast stations teams have been in talks with the NBA, NHL and MLB for a lot of the yr about choosing up native video games if sure RSNs fail.

Poaching groups from Diamond Sports Group, which filed for chapter earlier this yr and carries the video games of greater than 40 skilled sports activities groups, has been the first goal up to now for firms akin to EW Scripps and Gray Television. Scripps now carries video games from the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes. Gray reached a deal to broadcast the NBA’s Phoenix Suns earlier this yr.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon in talks to put money into Diamond Sports Group to maintain the corporate afloat whereas probably utilizing Prime Video as a touchdown residence for streaming rights.

This govt mentioned he believes the printed station teams will emerge as the first winner of rights as leagues will push for the expanded attain of broadcast TV whereas cable subscribers dwindle.

Executive 9: Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix and Disney will supply the primary important streaming bundle

Media pundits on CNBC love to say that subscription streaming will ultimately be bundled in one thing that form of seems like (and is priced like) conventional cable TV.

But years into the streaming wars, this hasn’t occurred. No one has emerged because the dominant aggregator. No bundle of many companies exists. It’s sophisticated to get media companies on board to comply with what one thing like that might appear to be.

This govt mentioned 2024 would be the yr firms lastly get severe about bundling, predicting Disney would comply with bundle its trio of streaming companies (Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+) with Max and Netflix to supply a number of streaming companies — at a reduction — that rivals cable TV.

A second govt famous that such a reduction will in all probability have to be championed by an anchor distributor. This govt’s guess is that it is going to be Amazon. He additionally predicted Paramount Global‘s Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max might be part of the primary streaming bundle that Amazon provides.

Executive 10: RedBird Capital will purchase Paramount Global and title Jeff Zucker CEO

Private fairness agency RedBird Capital, based by Gerry Cardinale, has been stockpiling govt expertise, together with two former NBCUniversal heads in Jeff Zucker and Jeff Shell, who begins work on the personal fairness agency in early 2024.

This govt made the daring name that RedBird will not simply purchase Shari Redstone’s National Amusements however all of Paramount Global, backed by a consortium of out of doors funding, together with cash from David Ellison and BDT Capital, the service provider financial institution run by Byron Trott that backed Redstone earlier this yr.

Zucker might then run Paramount Global and do the soiled work of deciding what a part of the corporate he desires to run and what to promote. Still, this govt mentioned Zucker would maintain a lot of the belongings and try to show the corporate was undervalued as a publicly traded entity.

Executive 11: CNN will let go of certainly one of its high anchors because it redirects cash to digital

No matter how nice CNN makes its programming, the cable information large in all probability cannot defeat the larger secular forces of declining cable subscribers. That will imply much less cash coming within the door for brand new CEO Mark Thompson, who plans on investing more in digital.

This govt predicted CNN will not be capable to up its digital spending with out reducing again on a declining linear TV enterprise — and that can imply letting go of at the least certainly one of its big-name anchors to save lots of money.

The transfer will usher in a brand new period at CNN, the place star anchors are not the main target of the corporate.

Executive 12: Linda Yaccarino will not final the yr as CEO of X

Former NBCUniversal promoting chief Linda Yaccarino joined X as its new CEO in 2023, however the match on the firm appears to make much less and much less sense by the day as advertisers flee.

Yaccarino suffered by an awkward interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin earlier this yr when Boorstin requested her if she was a CEO “in name only” and was solely on the firm to do proprietor Elon Musk’s bidding.

This govt predicted Yaccarino would both lose endurance or discover her job more and more pointless and go away the corporate in 2024.

Executive 13: No film will high $1 billion on the field workplace all yr

For the primary time in additional than 15 years, not counting 2020’s pandemic shutdown, no film will high $1 billion on the field workplace, this govt predicted. (This yr, “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” every simply cleared $1 billion, whereas “Oppenheimer” got here in simply shy at round $950 million.) Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” has the most effective probability, this individual mentioned. But predicting solely “Despicable Me 4” would high $1 billion is not as daring, and you solely dwell as soon as … anonymously.

Happy holidays!

Disclosure: Comcast is the mum or dad firm of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC.

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