CBS News poll: Abortion access finds wide support, but inflation and immigration concerns boost Trump in Arizona and Florida

When Arizona and Florida attracted the nationwide highlight over their abortion battles, this query arose: Would the problem upend the presidential contests in these states — or offset the drag on President Biden that inflation and the border have had on him nationally? 

And the reply, proper now, isn’t any. Biden trails in Arizona by 5 factors regardless of profitable it final time, and Trump is comfortably up by 9 factors in Florida, after profitable it twice in the final two cycles.

Because regardless of broad help for abortion rights in each states, that impact does not all accrue to Mr. Biden — or harm Trump — as a lot as individuals’s views on funds and immigration form the contests. 

In Arizona, with a border many consider is in disaster, a majority say Biden has been “too easy” on migrants. 

And there is a notion that issues have modified over 4 years. 

Compared to summer season 2020, extra voters now say latest immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse. And many Hispanic voters say this at present too.

And then Trump’s insurance policies are described as placing the pursuits of present U.S. residents forward of the pursuits of latest immigrants, whereas many Arizonans say Mr. Biden’s insurance policies do not.

The situation could also be hurting Mr. Biden with key demographic teams, together with Hispanic voters. 

For instance, Mr. Biden gained a majority of Arizona’s Hispanic voters in 2020, but he’s now working even with Trump amongst them.

Hispanic voters’ attitudes towards the selection and contest look loads like voters total: they’re dissatisfied with the financial system, suppose they are going to be financially higher off if Trump wins than say that about Mr. Biden, and are involved in regards to the border.

And there’s a sizable variety of Hispanic voters who now say latest immigrants have made Arizona life worse, as properly — successfully even with those that say they’ve made it higher.

(That mentioned, Arizonans suppose transplants from different U.S. states have made life worse too.)

Most voters suppose Trump would take steps to cut back migrant crossings, whereas most suppose Mr. Biden wouldn’t.

On economics 

Far extra voters suppose Trump will make them financially higher off if he wins; and in truth, extra say Trump cares about their financial struggles in the primary place, but each candidates elicit the bulk view that they do not.

That highlights the troubles for the Biden marketing campaign in going through down the results of inflation, right here as elsewhere:

Even as inflation cools in the macro measures, Arizonans overwhelmingly really feel costs are going up.

All of which assist Trump to a lead.

There’s a marker that the election denialism and controversies that remained in Arizona’s politics and rhetoric after 2020 are nonetheless right here. About half of Trump’s present voters would wish to problem the outcomes if he loses. In distinction, the overwhelming majority of Biden’s voters say they’d settle for the election outcomes if Trump wins.  

Breaking down the impression of abortion

Meanwhile in Florida, the abortion situation is not sufficient to convey that state into “battleground” territory for Mr. Biden — Trump leads his house state pretty comfortably. Much the identical dynamic is in play in each states.

Here are some the explanation why.

First, whereas abortion is vital, it is not as vital because the financial system and inflation.

Second, help for abortion access — both in precept or expressed as an modification vote — is excessive, but there may be not a one-to-one reference to voting for Biden. 

This is partly as a result of there are sizable numbers of Republicans who help abortion’s legality in at the very least some instances, but they vote for Trump.

Plus, Trump has distanced himself a bit on the problem, with half of voters neither blaming nor crediting him for Roe’s overturn. 

And comparatively fewer suppose Trump would cross a nationwide ban going ahead.

The most important dynamic seems to hinge on whether or not or not voters are offended in regards to the overturn of Roe, somewhat than merely dissatisfied.

And in Arizona, it is routine voters, extra so than much less frequent ones, who really feel offended in regards to the overturning of Roe and who’re likelier to say the abortion situation in their state is boosting their motivation to prove this yr.

There is majority help in each states for establishing a proper to abortion access. In Arizona a possible modification that might accomplish that, and in Florida one that might, get majority help, though as is usually the case with referenda and amendments, there’s plenty of expressed uncertainty and lots of people who haven’t heard or examine them but. 

At the second, Democrats are extra doubtless than Republicans and independents to report having heard about these poll initiatives.

And whereas many Democrats say the abortion situation motivates them, Biden nonetheless exhibits total bother motivating components of his common Democratic base. 

Two different Arizona Democrats fare higher than Biden — Governor Katie Hobbs will get slight majority approval, and Ruben Gallego is forward of Kari Lake in a possible Senate match-up. Gallego, amongst different variations, fares much better than Biden amongst Hispanic voters.

Meanwhile in Florida, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is comfortably forward in his potential match-up.

For extra on Florida, learn right here.

These CBS News/YouGov surveys have been performed between May 10-16, 2024. They are primarily based on consultant samples of 1,510 adults residing in Arizona and 1,576 adults residing in Florida. Margins of error for the overall pattern of adults: Arizona +/-3.3 factors and in Florida +/- 3.1 factors.  Margins of error for registered voters: Arizona +/-3.5 factors and Florida +/- 3.9 factors.

Arizona toplines

Florida toplines

Anthony Salvanto

Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is CBS News’ director of elections and surveys. He oversees all polling throughout the nation, states and congressional races, and heads the CBS News Decision Desk that estimates outcomes on election nights.