Emmys 2024 predictions: Who will win, and who should win, from The Bear to Shogun

Do not scratch your eyes or begin tearing up your calendar: it truly is time for the Emmys once more already.

The illustrious awards present, generally billed as tv’s equal of the Academy Awards, is again for the second time inside the house of 9 months, after the writers’ and actors’ strikes delayed last year’s ceremony until January 2024.

This yr’s crop of frontrunners contains Chicago-set restaurant dramedy The Bear, which took dwelling main prizes again in January, historic Japan-set drama Shōgun, and Baby Reindeer, the controversial Netflix miniseries created by comic Richard Gadd.

In order to qualify for the awards, exhibits should have aired within the US between 1 June 2023 and 31 May 2024. In the case of The Bear, which means it’s being judged on its second season, not its most recent third, which debuted again in June.

In the comedy classes, The Bear is up towards college school sitcom Abbott Elementary, generation-gap comedy Hacks and Hulu’s starry thriller comedy Only Murders within the Building, amongst others.

The drama brackets, in the meantime, see Shōgun vie towards exhibits corresponding to royal drama The Crown, fizzy spy reboot Mr & Mrs Smith, and Prime Video’s hit video-game adaptation Fallout.

Anthology heavyweights Fargo and True Detective are among the many collection positioned within the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, alongside the much-discussed Baby Reindeer.

Based on Gadd’s personal experiences because the sufferer of a stalker, Baby Reindeer drew fervent reward for its nuanced exploration of trauma, although was criticised by some for its merging of fact and fiction. A girl claiming to have impressed the character of Martha, the stalker within the collection, is currently suing Netflix for defamation.

See under for our breakdown of the contenders on this yr’s greatest Emmys classes, together with who will win – and who deserves to.

Outstanding Drama Series

Shōgun (FX)

The Crown (Netflix)

Fallout (Prime Video)

The Gilded Age (HBO)

The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Mr & Mrs Smith (Prime Video)

Slow Horses (Apple TV+)

3 Body Problem (Netflix)

Will win: Shōgun

Should win: Shōgun

Shōgun’s sweep of the Creative Arts Emmys earlier this month has cemented its probabilities of being topped finest drama. The epic, handsomely made interval saga, which at this level appears like a worthier successor to Game of Thrones than GoT spin-off House of the Dragon, wouldn’t simply be a deserving winner, it’d even be a historic one, changing into the class’s first ever non-English language winner (it’s solely the second such present to be nominated right here, following within the footsteps of Squid Game). In earlier years, The Crown would have been the one to beat, however the finale felt like a drawn-out damp squib.

Outstanding Comedy

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

The Bear (FX)

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

Hacks (Max)

Only Murders within the Building (Hulu)

Palm Royale (Apple TV+)

Reservation Dogs (FX)

What We Do within the Shadows (FX)

Will win: The Bear

Should win: The Bear

An unusually sturdy comedy line-up this yr options a humiliation of riches, from the scalpel-sharp showbiz comedy Hacks, to the ultimate season of Larry David’s groundbreaking, taboo-busting Curb Your Enthusiasm. Despite some fierce competitors, punchy culinary dramedy The Bear appears to be like set to take dwelling the award for its second season – and, despite the fact that some will certainly grouse in regards to the collection being much less a comedy than a fraught drama (which it’s), it will nonetheless be well-merited.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Fargo (FX)

Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)

Ripley (Netflix)

True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Should win: Ripley

This time final yr, nobody would’ve predicted that an adaptation of a Scottish comic’s stage present would have ended up as one among 2024’s most talked-about TV collection and made headlines around the globe (for higher and worse). But that’s precisely the trajectory that Richard Gadd’s Baby Reindeer has loved, and proper now it appears like a useless cert for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series; the controversies around its “real life” story have solely boosted its profile and saved it in viewers’ and voters’ minds. Still, I’d like to see some awards love for Ripley, an actual gradual burn of a present that didn’t fall into the lure of aping the beloved Anthony Minghella movie adaptation and as a substitute carved out its personal thrilling path.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Idris Elba – Hijack as Sam Nelson (Apple TV+)

Donald Glover – Mr & Mrs Smith as John Smith / Michael (Prime Video)

Walton Goggins – Fallout as The Ghoul / Cooper Howard (Prime Video)

Gary Oldman – Slow Horses as Jackson Lamb (Apple TV+)

Hiroyuki Sanada – Shōgun as Lord Yoshii Toranaga (FX)

Dominic West – The Crown as Charles, Prince of Wales (Netflix)

Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Should win: Walton Goggins

This yr’s Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series class is a little bit of an odd trendy hodge-podge. Oldman and West are within the operating for essentially the most conventional fare – spy drama Slow Horses and royal-focused The Crown, respectively – whereas the remainder of the nods go in the direction of much less standard performances in style collection. It’s Sanada’s compelling flip as Japanese ruler Yoshii Toranaga in Shōgun that appears sure to win, however credit score should go to Goggins for his peppery flip within the apocalyptic drama Fallout. Goggins – one among TV’s highest character actors – is massive and magnetic, and the collection wouldn’t work with out him.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show as Alex Levy (Apple TV+)

Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age as Bertha Russell (HBO)

Maya Erskine – Mr & Mrs Smith as Jane Smith / Alana (Prime Video)

Anna Sawai – Shōgun as Toda Mariko (FX)

Imelda Staunton – The Crown as Queen Elizabeth II (Netflix)

Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show as Bradley Jackson (Apple TV+)

Will win: Anna Sawai

Should win: Maya Erskine

Shōgun star Sawai will most likely win right here, as a part of the multi-category sweep that the Japan-set drama is poised to make. And her efficiency right here is undoubtedly worthy. But Erskine, enjoying Glover’s counterpart within the spies-in-matrimony remake Mr & Mrs Smith, accomplishes one thing a lot trickier. She’s humorous, she’s credible – and it’s a disgrace she gained’t win.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Matt Berry – What We Do within the Shadows as Laszlo Cravensworth (FX)

Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm as Larry David (HBO)

Steve Martin – Only Murders within the Building as Charles Haden Savage (Hulu)

Martin Short – Only Murders within the Building as Oliver Putnam (Hulu)

Jeremy Allen White – The Bear as Carmy Berzatto (FX)

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai – Reservation Dogs as Bear Smallhill (FX)

Will win: Jeremy Allen White

Should win: Steve Martin

Yes, chef! This trophy has White’s title on it. The Bear has seemingly unstoppable awards momentum, and it’s a superb showcase for White’s versatility. Bear (sorry) in thoughts too that, due to the eligibility guidelines round launch dates, voters are literally recognising his efficiency within the present’s stellar second season from 2023, relatively than the patchier third instalment that arrived a number of months again. Still, although, there’s nonetheless an enormous query mark hanging over whether or not it’s technically a comedy. For a extra cut-and-dry comedian efficiency, Martin’s all-singing, all-dancing flip in season three of Only Murders within the Building is an absolute delight.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary as Janine Teagues (ABC)

Ayo Edebiri – The Bear as Sydney Adamu (FX)

Selena Gomez – Only Murders within the Building as Mabel Mora (Hulu)

Maya Rudolph – Loot as Molly Wells (Apple TV+)

Jean Smart – Hacks as Deborah Vance (HBO)

Kristen Wiig – Palm Royale as Maxine Simmons (Apple TV+)

Will win: Jean Smart

Should win: Jean Smart

She has already picked up two consecutive Emmys for her flip as old-school comedy diva Deborah Vance, and Smart now appears to be like set to make {that a} hat trick: the third season of Hacks was extensively celebrated as its finest but, and Smart remained on prime kind. If anybody has a shot at stealing the trophy, it’s most likely 2023’s winner Brunson, who remains to be a pleasure to watch in Abbott Elementary, or Edebiri, who has been rightly bumped up to lead actress standing for The Bear after successful within the supporting class again in January.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Richard Gadd – Baby Reindeer as Donny Dunn (Netflix)

Matt Bomer – Fellow Travelers as Hawkins Fuller (Showtime)

Jon Hamm – Fargo as Roy Tillman (FX)

Tom Hollander – Feud: Capote vs The Swans as Truman Capote (FX)

Andrew Scott – Ripley as Tom Ripley (Netflix)

Will win: Richard Gadd

Should win: Andrew Scott

This one’s a very stacked class, crammed with worthy winners, however Baby Reindeer’s creator-star Gadd feels just like the one to beat (his is by far essentially the most talked-about efficiency on the listing, even supposing he had a really restricted profile within the US just some months in the past). Scott, nonetheless, was snubbed by the Emmys for his position as Fleabag’s “hot priest” so it appears like he’s effectively overdue some recognition from voters. His efficiency as Ripley’s titular conman was by turns charming and chilling, and as soon as once more proved that he’s probably the most compelling actors working at this time.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Jodie Foster – True Detective: Night Country as Detective Elizabeth Danvers (HBO)

Brie Larson – Lessons in Chemistry as Elizabeth Zott (Apple TV+)

Juno Temple – Fargo as Dorothy “Dot” Lyon (FX)

Sofía Vergara – Griselda as Griselda Blanco (Netflix)

Naomi Watts – Feud: Capote vs. The Swans as Babe Paley (FX)

Will win: Jodie Foster

Should win: Juno Temple

Icy crime drama True Detective: Night Country might have polarised critics, however Foster’s lead efficiency, as flinty police chief Liz Danvers, drew raves throughout the board. Temple’s fascinatingly eccentric flip in Fargo’s return-to-form fifth season could be an equally apt victor, nonetheless. As “Dot” Lyon, a Minnesota homemaker with a darkish and mysterious backstory, Temple was essentially the most compelling piece of a big and vibrant puzzle, holding her personal towards seasoned heavyweights corresponding to Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hamm and Dave Foley.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Tadanobu Asano – Shōgun as Kashigi Yabushige (FX)

Billy Crudup – The Morning Show as Cory Ellison (Apple TV+)

Mark Duplass – The Morning Show as Chip Black(Apple TV+)

Jon Hamm – The Morning Show as Paul Marks (Apple TV+)

Takehiro Hira – Shōgun as Ishido Kazunari (FX)

Jack Lowden – Slow Horses as River Cartwright (Apple TV+)

Jonathan Pryce – The Crown as Prince Philip (Netflix)

Will win: Billy Crudup

Should win: Tadanobu Asano

Emmy voters actually, actually like Crudup. He beforehand gained this identical award for his portrayal of The Morning Show exec Cory Ellison again in 2020, beating the surely-one-of-them-will-win Succession trio of Matthew Macfadyen, Kieran Culkin and Nicholas Braun. He’s solely had extra time to impress since then, which means the sensible cash is on him. Still, there’s a powerful risk that Shōgun’s Asano may simply sweep to victory, thanks to his standout portrayal of unscrupulous warlord Kashigi Yabushige; it’s a layered, fascinating efficiency that steals each scene he’s in.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Christine Baranski – The Gilded Age (HBO)

Nicole Beharie – The Morning Show as Christina Hunter (Apple TV+)

Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown as Princess Diana (Netflix)

Greta Lee – The Morning Show as Stella Bak(Apple TV+)

Lesley Manville – The Crown as Princess Margaret (Netflix)

Karen Pittman – The Morning Show as Mia Jordan (Apple TV+)

Holland Taylor – The Morning Show as Cybil Richards (Apple TV+)

Will win: Elizabeth Debicki

Should win: Elizabeth Debicki

Debicki’s uncanny portrayal of Princess Diana in the course of the last few weeks of her life was the perfect factor about The Crown’s disappointing last hurrah by miles (that she nearly managed to promote that ill-advised “ghost Diana” scene is proof of her energy as a performer). She was nominated on this class for the 2023 awards, however inevitably misplaced out to Jennifer Coolidge’s bravura flip in The White Lotus; this time, the trail to victory is way clearer. The Morning Show’s supporting forged simply don’t have the visibility that comes with enjoying probably the most well-known girls in latest historical past, and Debicki’s co-star Lesley Manville didn’t have sufficient display time as Princess Margaret to actually make an affect.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Lionel Boyce – The Bear as Marcus Brooks (FX)

Paul W Downs – Hacks as Jimmy LuSaque, Jr. (Max)

Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich (FX)

Paul Rudd – Only Murders within the Building as Ben Glenroy (Hulu)

Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary as Gregory Eddie (ABC)

Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live as varied characters (NBC)

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

You can most likely guess your own home on this one: Moss-Bachrach, who gained this class final time round, is the agency favorite this yr, for his position because the explosive Ritchie in The Bear. Profiling the actor earlier this year, The Independent’s Ellie Harrison described him as the series’ “agent of chaos”. It’s a captivating portrayal, filled with edges and contradictions; the present wouldn’t be the identical with out him. Lionel Boyce, wonderful however much less distinguished in the identical collection, doesn’t stand an excessive amount of of an opportunity.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Carol Burnett – Palm Royale as Norma Dellacorte (Apple TV+)

Liza Colón-Zayas – The Bear as Tina Marrero (FX)

Hannah Einbinder – Hacks as Ava Daniels (Max)

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary as Ava Coleman (ABC)

Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary as Barbara Howard (ABC)

Meryl Streep – Only Murders within the Building as Loretta Durkin (Hulu)

Will win: Hannah Einbinder

Should win: Liza Colón-Zayas

It’s a clear-cut case of “category fraud”, I’m afraid. Don’t get me fallacious, Einbinder is good in Hacks, enjoying the long-suffering twentysomething comic paired up with Smart’s diva-ish previous star. But it’s no supporting efficiency: Hacks is a two-hander by way of and by way of, and she should rightly be operating towards Smart, as a substitute of the supporting ensemble right here. Colón-Zayas, in the meantime, provides a consummate supporting efficiency in The Bear, as Tina, the world-weary line cook dinner, and would make a effective, and extra becoming, different. Or, you realize, there’s all the time Streep.