Explained: How Fallout Of Iran-Israel War Could Impact Global Politics

New Delhi:

In the wake of the unprecedented drone and missile assault launched by Iran in opposition to Israel, the area finds itself teetering on the sting of a probably devastating battle. With sirens blaring and explosions resonating over Jerusalem, the long-standing covert struggle between Iran and Israel has prompted fears of additional escalation and instability.

To make clear the intricate dynamics at play, NDTV spoke with Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics at Lancaster University and creator of a number of books on the Middle East, to know the established order and what the longer term would possibly maintain for the area.

Regional Escalation

Iran had beforehand issued threats of retaliation in opposition to Israel following an April 1 airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, the place seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, together with two generals, had been killed. 

Professor Mabon highlighted the repercussions of Israel’s focused strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The fallout from this assault has considerably destabilised the area, making a precarious atmosphere fraught with uncertainty.

“The Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus has had a dramatic impact on regional politics in making the region a more precarious, more unstable environment. The direct attack from Israel resulted in the killing of senior members of the IRGC and provoked a powerful condemnation from senior Iranian figures including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” Professor Mabon informed NDTV. 

An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles in direction of Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel April 14
Photo Credit: Reuters

“This has caused serious concern among many in Israel, the United States and beyond about Iranian retaliation against Israel. But this could take a number of different forms. Iran feels it is under pressure to respond by virtue of its long-standing support of the Palestinian cause and by virtue of its longstanding opposition to the state of Israel,” he added. 

The Iranian navy declared that its drone and missile assault on Israel had completed all meant targets.

“As a result of being the de facto leader of the ‘Axis Of Resistance’, Iran finds itself in somewhat of a bind here. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, it has been very careful not to play into escalation with Israel but at the same time, it is in some ways forced into some type of retaliation,” Professor Mabon mentioned. 

Possible Israeli Response 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu right this moment mentioned that his nation has been making ready for a direct assault by Iran for years and can “harm” anybody who harms them. 

“Israel has said that if there is a direct strike from Iranian territory then it will respond in kind. That is interesting wording in the sense that it speaks of a direct Iranian attack,” mentioned Professor Mabon.

United States President Joe Biden, Israel’s strongest ally, has pledged “ironclad” assist for Israel.  Historically, Israel’s agency stance on assaults on its territories indicators that any direct assault from Iranian territory will likely be met with swift reprisal. Despite the desire for de-escalation, the spectre of battle looms giant, significantly as Israel contemplates its subsequent transfer. 

Benjamin Netanyahu and his high leaders on the Kirya in Tel Aviv.
Photo Credit: @IsraeliPM

“No one wants an escalation right now but the decision from the war cabinet in Israel is going to be absolutely essential in what happens next. Whether Netanyahu decides that the ability to deter, stemming from the ability to close down the colossal attack granted at a huge economic cost of an estimated billion dollars, is enough to say to Israel’s rivals, ‘Look we will stop you, whatever the cost’. 

In a region fraught with volatility, the slightest misstep could precipitate a catastrophic escalation with far-reaching consequences

“What will Israel do subsequent? Will the Iranian strikes provoke one other response? The Iranians have been very eager to say this has nothing to do with the US,” he said.

Pressure On Netanyahu 

Earlier this year, thousands of Israelis gathered in Jerusalem, demanding increased actions to liberate the captives detained in Gaza and the removal of  Netanyahu. 

Approximately 250 hostages were taken by Hamas militants during the October 7 assaults on Israel that instigated the conflict. Israel estimates that 130 individuals, including 33 presumed dead, are still in captivity in Gaza.

A demonstrator holds a sign depicting a mashup of the faces of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar during an anti-government demonstration in Tel Aviv on April 13
Photo Credit: AFP

“Since October 7, the Netanyahu management and his coalition have doubled down on its hardline stance as regards to dialogue with Palestine leaders. Unless the hostages are launched, Netanyahu won’t interact with the Palestinian management to debate the way forward for the state of Palestine. The dialogue at current is about releasing the hostages in pursuit of a ceasefire,” Professor Mabon said. 

“The different factor to notice right here is that Netanyahu’s political future is on the road. In case he’s faraway from energy, which is turning into more and more doubtless in gentle of the widespread protests in opposition to his rule and his management that he faces. So he’s more and more eager to double down on its stance as a result of he sees it as a solution to keep in energy,” he added. 

Prospects Of Regional Peace 

Against this backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, prospects for peace talks between Israel and Hamas appear increasingly bleak. 

Israel’s spy agency Mosaid today that the Palestinian militant group Hamas had rejected the latest proposal by international mediators for a truce in the war in Gaza.

Egypt, Qatar, and the US have previously acted as intermediaries in negotiations, yet a viable agreement has proven elusive. The mediators aimed to secure a ceasefire prior to the commencement of Ramadan, but progress halted.

“Public requires a ceasefire have elevated however until the US overtly requires a ceasefire and condemns the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) actions in Gaza, the Israelis are in a position to ignore, circumvent or keep away from this “noise” because it sees it,” Professor Mabon said. 

Post-Conflict Reconstruction 

In Gaza, which has seen continual bombardment by Israeli forces since the October 7 attacks, post-conflict reconstruction of the region stands as a monumental task, fraught with multifaceted challenges and complexities.

“Rehabilitation and rebuilding when it comes to a battle is an extremely difficult job. Post-conflict reconstruction is vastly costly and vastly difficult. People are coping with devastation, lack of livelihood, households, and accidents each psychological and bodily, and placing all that collectively you get an extremely tense atmosphere,” Professor Mabon said. 

A general view of destroyed buildings, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas, in Khan Younis, Gaza April 11, 2024
Photo Credit: Reuters

“Then there may be the added financial burden – who will likely be paying for the reconstruction as a result of proper now as there is no such thing as a cash in Gaza or Palestine. The Palestinian financial system has been decimated by what has been occurring, the Gazan financial system specifically has been destroyed. So there are quite a few challenges in Gaza when it comes to reconstruction,” he added. 

Since the Israelis launched their assault on Gaza, an estimated 33,686 individuals have been killed within the besieged Palestinian enclave.