CNN
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The incessant lava capturing out of Hawaii’s Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes has stirred reminiscences of Kilauea’s devastating 2018 eruption, which swallowed hundreds of homes.
But the present eruptions are totally different. While it’s unclear how far the lava will journey from both volcano, specialists say historical past and context can present clues.
Mauna Loa is the world’s largest energetic volcano. It stretches 10.5 miles from base to summit and takes up half the entire surface area of Hawaii’s Big Island, the US Geological Survey says.
But in comparison with its smaller neighbor Kilauea, Mauna Loa doesn’t erupt as continuously. So there’s not as a lot historic information on its lava and the place it travels, mentioned Tracy Gregg, affiliate professor of geology on the University at Buffalo.
And that makes the trajectory of its lava – which might change at any second – more durable to foretell.
“But the good news about lava is that – particularly on the island of Hawaii – it doesn’t really sneak up on people. Folks know when it’s coming,” Gregg mentioned.
“So in terms of loss of life, I’m not concerned.”
Lava from Mauna Loa was crawling ahead Tuesday at about 21 yards per hour, mentioned Mike Zoeller of the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
The lava advance, which just lately slowed after hitting flatter surfaces, was inside 1.92 miles of the Daniel Okay. Inouye Highway – the foremost freeway connecting the japanese and western halves of Big Island, he mentioned.
But all “that could change in an hour,” Gregg mentioned, making the duty of guessing which – if any – infrastructure or buildings could be broken by lava far more troublesome.
It appears unlikely that Mauna Loa’s lava will wipe out properties; the closest main inhabitants heart is Hilo, about 37 miles northeast.
“In some cases, Mauna Loa flows have traveled as far as Hilo and South Kona, so there certainly might be exposure of communities to lava,” mentioned Einat Lev, an affiliate analysis professor in seismology, geology and tectonophysics at Columbia University.
“However, this is very unlikely judging by the length of historical lava flows,” Lev mentioned.
Indeed, “Mauna Loa lava flows have not inundated communities,” Gregg mentioned.
“There have been some scares. Hilo is one of the biggest cities on the island, and in the 1880s, Mauna Loa lava flow kind of crept up pretty close to Hilo – but even then didn’t quite make it.”
Right now, there’s a “small chance that the flow would diverge and turn towards the west,” Lev mentioned, the place “it might interact with roads and structures in the Pōhakuloa Game Management Area.”
The US Army’s Pohakuloa Training Area is about 20 miles north of Mauna Loa. An unexploded ordnance was noticed this week in lava rocks close to a Mauna Loa eruption viewing space, Hawaii News Now reported.
“Unexploded ordnance may indeed be found in the area, given its long history as a training area” for the Army, Lev mentioned.
But there are too many variables – reminiscent of how deep the army system is in the bottom – to take a position what would possibly happen if a lava reached it, Gregg mentioned.
Just 21 miles away from Mauna Loa, Kilauea has been exploding for the previous 12 months.
But in contrast to the 2018 Kilauea eruption that destroyed hundreds of homes in the Leilani Estates neighborhood, the present eruption is way totally different due to the place the lava is capturing out from and the way shut the eruption is to folks.
“Lava from the 2021-present eruption has been confined to the summit crater,” Lev mentioned.
In different phrases, lava isn’t gushing down the facet of Kilauea proper now. It’s staying close to the highest.
“This is in contrast to the 2018 eruption, when the eruptive vents were located low on the southeastern flank of the volcano,” Lev mentioned.
“There is always a chance that there will be another eruption on the flank, closer to communities, but not from the current location of the Kilauea eruption.”
Gregg hopes Kilauea’s eruption stays put, with lava capturing up from and staying inside the summit crater, she mentioned.
“If you think of the summit crater as like a bathtub, the bathtub is barely even beginning to be filled,” Gregg mentioned.
“Right now, the lava at Kilauea is behaving very nicely. And we hope that lasts.”
Humans in the previous have tried to divert or even stop lava from advancing. Workers have used bulldozers to construct enormous earthen partitions to attempt to redirect lava after eruptions, reminiscent of that of Mount Etna in Sicily.
But “the history is not successful,” mentioned Paul Segall, a professor of geophysics at Stanford University.
In 1935, the founding father of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory requested the US Army Air Corps to bomb the supply of lava flowing from Mauna Loa because it headed towards the Wailuku River, in accordance with the US Geological Service.
The military dropped two 600-pound bombs, however they missed their goal and had minimal impact on the lava flows.
Lava’s tendency to move “is extremely temperature-sensitive,” Segall mentioned. That makes it “somewhat unpredictable.”
But with neighboring volcanoes now erupting concurrently, scientists are keen to check what will happen next.
“It would be fascinating to see if the eruptions influence each other,” Lev mentioned.
No matter what occurs, Gregg mentioned, residents and vacationers ought to take note of warnings from native officers and heed any steerage from volcanologists.
“I think the most important thing is that we really can’t predict what’s going to happen on an hour-by-hour or even day-by-day basis.”