The Sierra Nevada in California is facing severe storms this week, with avalanche warnings now extended to Colorado’s Rocky Mountains.
While connecting climate change to specific weather events takes careful study, experts note a concerning trend: global warming seems to increase avalanche risks at higher elevations. Heavy snowfall can pile up and create unstable conditions on mountain slopes.
Last Tuesday, a tragic avalanche near Lake Tahoe took the lives of at least eight skiers. Authorities haven’t pinpointed the exact cause but believe heavy snow on an unstable snowpack played a crucial role.
Climate experts point out a surprising reality: while warmer winters are expected in the western U.S., higher elevations may actually see more snowfall. Ned Bair, a researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, explains, “What really matters in avalanches is the intensity of the atmospheric rivers.”
Atmospheric rivers carry moisture from tropical regions and can lead to intense snowfall. A 2023 study in *Climate Dynamics* revealed that such rivers in the Pacific are becoming wetter and warmer. They can dump massive amounts of snow even while snow days may decrease overall. According to the study, central and southern Sierra Nevada peaks could experience extreme snow in January and February due to these atmospheric conditions.
Next week, the Lake Tahoe area is expected to see more of this weather, driven by cold air masses from the Pacific Northwest, as noted by meteorologist Heather Richards from the National Weather Service in Reno.
Bair’s research also connected climate change to avalanche frequency. By merging future climate models with existing avalanche prediction tools, he found avalanche frequency could remain steady or even increase at higher elevations. He presented these insights at the 2024 International Snow Science Workshop.
Furthermore, a study from 2017 showed that atmospheric rivers contributed to around a third of avalanche fatalities in the western U.S. from 1998 to 2014, highlighting their critical impact.
The Sierra Nevada is already feeling the pressures of climate change. A 2021 U.S. Forest Service report noted warmer winters and shifting weather patterns affecting the region. These changes lead to earlier snowmelt and increase avalanche risks.
In Colorado, emergency services recently raised avalanche warnings to level four out of five, indicating a significant risk for skiers and hikers. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center highlighted the dangers, noting that current storms are causing large and dangerous avalanches on steep slopes.
As climate patterns evolve, communities in mountainous regions must prepare for growing risks. Understanding these changes is essential for safety and survival in the face of nature’s unpredictable challenges.
