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NEW DELHI: JP Morgan raised its forecast for India’s annual progress by 50 foundation factors to 5.5% for fiscal 2024, however warned {that a} world financial slowdown and tighter monetary situations will nonetheless drag the economic system.
The change comes after progress in India’s gross home product (GDP) accelerated to 6.1% within the March quarter, authorities knowledge confirmed, boosted by authorities and personal capital spending at the same time as non-public consumption remained sluggish.
The economic system additionally grew at a better-than-expected 7.2% for fiscal 2023.
“Global growth momentum is still expected to slow in the coming quarters and, domestically, the impact of monetary policy normalisation will be felt with a lag,” economists led by Sajjid Z Chinoy mentioned.
The Indian authorities revised its full-yr progress estimate for the present monetary yr to 7.2% from 7% on Wednesday, above the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of seven%. India’s economic system grew 9.1% in fiscal 2022.
The brokerage added the expansion might see upsides if the central authorities can pull off the “very strong increase” in budgeted capex for fiscal 2024 and persuade the states to do the identical. However, the economic system might take successful if the El Nino phenomenon impacts this yr’s monsoon, it added.
The Wall Street Bank attributed the higher-than-anticipated March-quarter GDP to greater progress in exports, including that India stood to profit, as a commodity importer, “through positive terms-of-trade impulses from lower commodities.”
The change comes after progress in India’s gross home product (GDP) accelerated to 6.1% within the March quarter, authorities knowledge confirmed, boosted by authorities and personal capital spending at the same time as non-public consumption remained sluggish.
The economic system additionally grew at a better-than-expected 7.2% for fiscal 2023.
“Global growth momentum is still expected to slow in the coming quarters and, domestically, the impact of monetary policy normalisation will be felt with a lag,” economists led by Sajjid Z Chinoy mentioned.
The Indian authorities revised its full-yr progress estimate for the present monetary yr to 7.2% from 7% on Wednesday, above the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of seven%. India’s economic system grew 9.1% in fiscal 2022.
The brokerage added the expansion might see upsides if the central authorities can pull off the “very strong increase” in budgeted capex for fiscal 2024 and persuade the states to do the identical. However, the economic system might take successful if the El Nino phenomenon impacts this yr’s monsoon, it added.
The Wall Street Bank attributed the higher-than-anticipated March-quarter GDP to greater progress in exports, including that India stood to profit, as a commodity importer, “through positive terms-of-trade impulses from lower commodities.”
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