Local Elections 2023: How the Struggling Tories and Labour Plan to Counter Reform’s Rise

Boy, that was close!

Late Thursday night, the DCBL stadium in Widnes buzzed with activity as volunteers recounted 32,655 votes for the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. It went into the early hours of Friday, with tensions rising as key figures arrived. Nigel Farage showed up alongside Reform candidate Sarah Pochin and Labour’s Karen Shore. The mood was telling: Reform was confident they had just won, while Labour’s faces reflected disappointment.

This by-election marked a crucial moment, as it was the only parliamentary contest happening that night. Many more results will roll in later, especially from other regions where the Liberal Democrats hope to make notable gains. But right now, all eyes are on Reform UK.

Farage’s party is proving that good opinion polls can turn into real votes and victories. This suggests that Reform could challenge both Conservatives and Labour in the future. Their vote share has been significant, often between 20% and 30% in key contests, even when they didn’t win.

In the mayoral elections declared so far, Reform secured impressive standings: 31% in Doncaster, 29% in North Tyneside, and 22% in the West of England. They also managed a striking 42% in Lincolnshire, where former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns became the county’s first elected mayor.

As Farage steps into a new role with actual governance, he faces heightened scrutiny. Questions loom regarding how well his “individualist” party will work together. One Labour insider voiced concerns: “How do they manage to run things?” Meanwhile, a Conservative source commented on Farage’s initial excitement but cautioned that he relies on Pochin and Jenkyns to keep things in line. There’s even worry about potential conflicts among party members.

For the Conservatives, the results painted a bleak picture after a challenging night. They expect more disappointing news from traditional strongholds, where the Liberal Democrats sense an opportunity. The government is already adjusting its message, even as it grapples with setbacks.

Statistics reveal that voter dissatisfaction is on the rise. A recent poll by YouGov indicates that only 29% of people feel positively about the Conservative government’s performance. This pressure is evident as officials focus on policies like immigration reform and upcoming spending reviews.

These election results will play a key role in shaping the political landscape. Expect intense conversations and strategies, as the government recalibrates in response to this wake-up call. The path ahead will demand reflection and serious discussions about delivering the promises made to voters.



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