Study Reveals 2032 ‘City-Killer’ Impact Poses Serious Risk to Earth’s Satellites

Imagine this: in 2032, a massive asteroid could potentially collide with the Moon. If it does, researchers say the explosion would send debris flying toward Earth, creating a dazzling meteor shower. Earlier this year, there was concern over the 60-meter-wide asteroid named 2024 YR4. Initially, it had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032—an unusually high figure for a rock this size.

Thankfully, further observations from telescopes confirmed that it won’t strike Earth. However, the chance of it hitting the Moon has increased to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb Space Telescope.

Paul Wiegert, a study author from Canada’s University of Western Ontario, explains that this impact would unleash energy similar to a large nuclear explosion, making it the largest asteroid impact on the Moon in around 5,000 years. Up to 100 million kilograms of material could be ejected from the Moon. If it strikes the side facing Earth—about a 50-50 chance—up to 10% of that debris could be pulled into our atmosphere.

Earth’s atmosphere would generally protect us from the smaller bits of lunar rock. However, fragments as small as a centimeter, traveling at incredibly high speeds, could pose a threat to satellites. Wiegert likens these to bullets in terms of their danger. Experts estimate that after such an impact, the number of meteors could increase over 1,000 times, raising the risk for our satellites—many more of which are expected to be in orbit by 2032.

While the chance of a direct hit remains low at just 2%, it’s something to keep an eye on. Interestingly, 2024 YR4 won’t be visible again until 2028, meaning the world will have to wait a bit longer for updates.

If it does look like a hit is imminent, humanity might have time to plan a mission to protect the Moon. Wiegert points out that the asteroid is a manageable target for testing our planetary defense systems, similar to NASA’s DART mission, which successfully altered the trajectory of another asteroid in 2022.

This situation sheds light on the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects. With advancements in technology, we can improve our chances of preparing for potential impacts. For now, we’ll watch the skies and hope for a brilliant meteor shower rather than a disaster.

For more details on near-Earth objects and their monitoring, check out NASA’s Planetary Defense resources here.

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