President of Turkey Recep Erdogan addresses journalists throughout the remaining nationwide press convention throughout the excessive stage NATO summit in Litexpo Conference Centre in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 12, 2023.
Dominika Zarzycka | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Turkey spent almost two years â alongside with Hungary â holding up Sweden’s accession to NATO.
It’s bought powerful Russian weapons systems and its outspoken President Recep Tayyip Erdogan overtly lambastes leaders of allied Western international locations. Relations between Turkey and the West have been strained, to say the least.
But with the choice to permit Sweden into NATO in late January â a transfer that required unanimous approval by all 31 members of the alliance â it is as if a change has been flipped.Â
Within hours of Ankara’s choice, the U.S. approved a $23 billion sale for F-16 fighter jets to Turkey that had been delayed since 2021. The State Department’s Victoria Nuland mentioned that Turkey would instantly start receiving modernization kits for his or her F-16s, and that Washington could be “delighted” to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 program for NATO’s most superior fighter jet, as quickly as the allies resolved the issue of Turkey’s Russian weapons system purchases.Â
It’s value noting that Hungary has but to approve Sweden’s NATO bid, and stays the solely member of the alliance standing in the approach of the Nordic nation’s accession.Â
“No country within the western orbit has taken so many problematic steps only to be welcomed back with open arms,” David Lepeska, a Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist wrote for UAE outlet The National.
Turkey seemingly has a novel place that enables it to push the envelope and cross strains with its NATO allies. And it is also welcomed back with open arms after a single change in place, regardless of requires stricter accountability by some U.S. lawmakers.Â
“My approval of Turkey’s request to purchase F-16 aircraft has been contingent on Turkish approval of Sweden’s NATO membership. But make no mistake: This was not a decision I came to lightly,” Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement.
A normal view of the General Assembly of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) throughout the debate on the Bill on the Approval of the Ratification of the Protocol on Sweden’s Accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Ankara, Turkiye on January 23, 2024. (Photo by Metin Aktas /Anadolu by way of Getty Images)
Metin Aktas | Anadolu | Getty Images
Sen. Chris Van Hollen said he welcomed Turkey’s ratification, but added: “I continue to have serious concerns about President Erdogan’s ongoing attacks against our Syrian Kurdish allies, his aggressive actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the role he played in supporting Azerbaijan’s military assaults against Nagorno-Karabakh ⦠It is clear that we must keep a close watch on Turkey in the weeks and months ahead â actions speak louder than words.”Â
Crucial strategic ally
The extra a rustic is wanted by its allies and companions on a strategic or financial stage, the extra it may well get away with, geopolitical analysts level out.Â
Turkey has the second-largest navy in NATO after the U.S., its Incirlik air base is a pivotal takeoff level for Western sorties into the Middle East like fighter jet flights over Syria and Iraq throughout the anti-IS marketing campaign, and it even homes some 50 American nuclear warheads.Â
“Historically, Türkiye has been a crucial NATO member given its geostrategic position straddling Europe and Asia and controlling access to the Black Sea,” Hakan Akbas, a senior advisor at the Albright Stonebridge Group, advised CNBC.
The nation controls the Bosporus Strait, an important maritime route for world meals and agricultural commerce and navy logistics. It’s additionally been “an essential partner in various military operations and missions operating side by side with the U.S.,” most just lately in Afghanistan, Akbas mentioned. Â
But Turkey’s strategic worth to NATO goes past its navy position. “It serves as a key player in regional security, bordering Russia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and as a transit country for energy pipelines critical to global markets,” Akbas added. “This position gives Ankara a considerable amount of leverage in its dealings with other NATO members, allowing it more latitude than smaller or less strategically located members might enjoy.”
The Turkish authorities’s friendliness with Russia places many NATO members at unease; but it concurrently permits it to do issues like dealer the Black Sea grain deal and prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia.Â
Washington’s choice to shortly transfer ahead with the sale of F-16s to Turkey “can be seen as a gesture of goodwill from the U.S. and an acknowledgment of Türkiye’s critical role within the alliance,” Akbas mentioned, “keeping it closer vis-à -vis Russia, balancing its security needs with broader concerns about regional stability.”
“It underscores the robust and yet adaptive nature of NATO-Türkiye relations,” he added, “where strategic imperatives often lead to eventual compromises and concessions from all sides involved.” Â
Remaining tensionsÂ
Turkey and its NATO allies, notably the U.S., nonetheless conflict in a variety of delicate areas.Â
Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system is a safety danger for NATO’s protection techniques, Washington says â a lot in order that the purchase in 2019 resulted in Turkey being locked out of NATO’s F-35 program, which might have seen it partake in manufacturing and buying the superior stealth jets.  Â
Meanwhile, Ankara overtly condemns U.S. assist for Kurdish militias in Syria that it sees as a part of a Kurdish terrorist group threatening Turkey. Its navy campaigns towards these teams in Syria have even led to sporadic oblique battle with U.S. forces in the area.
Turkey’s Erdogan additionally has expressed vocal support for the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which runs the Gaza Strip, and provides safe harbor for a few of its leaders who’re designated as terrorists by the U.S. Meanwhile, Turkish unilateral actions over maritime disputes with fellow NATO members Greece and Cyprus have additionally drawn criticism from the alliance.Â
“Any of these issues could quickly escalate, depending on domestic political or economic developments in Türkiye, changes in the regional security landscape, or shifts in US and NATO policies,” Akbas mentioned.
“The dynamic nature of geopolitics in the regions means that while some disputes may be temporarily resolved or de-escalated, they can re-emerge as significant challenges to alliance cohesion and cooperation.”