Recently, a dry spell in South Carolina turned into a series of fires that overwhelmed the landscape. Over the weekend, more than 100 fires broke out due to dry air, flammable vegetation, and strong winds. Doug Wood from the state’s Forestry Commission explained that these conditions made it easy for the flames to spread.
This is just one example of what scientists call “compound weather” — when multiple weather events combine to create more serious challenges. Around the world, we are seeing how these overlapping disasters are becoming more common with climate change.
For instance, Malaysia faced severe flooding that claimed lives, displaced thousands, and disrupted palm oil production. In January, Los Angeles experienced catastrophic wildfires, largely due to a series of weather events that included an unusually warm year combined with dry conditions.
Texas has its own history of compounded disasters. The 2021 winter freeze there resulted in significant loss of life and quickly followed by the Smokehouse Creek Fire last year, which was driven by severe drought across the Great Plains.
With rising global temperatures, experts expect these compound weather events to grow more frequent and devastating. A study predicted that by mid-century, climate-related damages could cost the global economy around $38 trillion each year.
Deborah Brosnan, a climate risk scientist, noted that events in Los Angeles are a perfect example of how a blend of drought and high temperatures made a bad situation worse. California had experienced two wet winters before the vegetation dried out and ignited during the heat. This created a fire environment that was 35% more likely to occur due to climate change.
Assessing the total costs of these disasters can be tricky because damage is often recorded separately. The California fires alone could lead to losses of about $164 billion, while the earlier impacts of the drought are harder to quantify. After the fires were extinguished, heavy rains led to mudslides that further complicated recovery.
Lou Gritzo, a chief science officer at an insurance firm, remarked on how interconnected these events are and how the absence of just one factor could have reduced disaster severity.
Australia has faced similar struggles, with drought conditions in 2017 to 2019 leading to the devastating Black Summer Fires, costing up to $1.5 billion in claims.
Researchers find it challenging to study these rare compound events. Doug Richardson, a climate scientist, expressed the need to improve models that gauge how various weather hazards interact.
While some weather disasters lead to fires, others result in floods. For example, Malaysia’s flooding was exacerbated when high tides coincided with heavy rain, causing saturation in the soil. The downturn in drought can also lead to subsequent intense weather events, where dry soil transforms into heat-absorbing surfaces, amplifying heat further.
Increasingly severe climate effects, such as rising sea levels, add to the dangers, especially in vulnerable regions. Deforestation raises landslide risks, and damage to coastal ecosystems like mangroves worsens flooding.
Moreover, compound events can impact multiple locations at once, as seen in the 2024 floods across Europe, which resulted from record rainfall and caused significant damage and loss of life in various countries. Scientists predict climate change will only worsen rain patterns in such situations.
Brosnan also pointed out the gaps in emergency management when dealing with such complex challenges. Learning from non-weather disasters, like Japan’s thorough preparation for earthquakes, could offer valuable insights. Communities working together can create stronger resilience against these growing risks.
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Climate change, wildfires, floods, drought
