A fact-check on Modi’s speech in Rajasthan about Muslims and Manmohan Singh

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Vote attraction: Prime Minister Narendra Modi throughout a public rally in Rajasthan
| Photo Credit: ANI

On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a series of controversial statements at a public assembly in Rajasthan. He referred to Muslims in India as “those who have a large number of children” and claimed that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh mentioned (in 2006) “Muslims had the first claim on the country’s resources”. He alleged that the 2024 Congress manifesto proposes to distribute individuals’s wealth amongst Muslims if the celebration is elected to energy. He made this declare by combining sections in the manifesto, which addresses wealth inequality, and connecting these factors to the previous Prime Minister’s speech in 2006.

A fact-check utilizing authorities knowledge reveals that the declare that Muslims give beginning to extra youngsters is inaccurate.

Table 1 | The desk reveals the entire fertility charges (TFR) of ladies from numerous non secular teams. The fertility fee is the common variety of youngsters a lady is predicted to have in her lifetime. A fee of two.1 (the ‘replacement level’) implies that the inhabitants is steady.

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As the desk reveals, the fertility fee of Muslims together with the fertility charges of all different non secular teams have been drastically declining through the years. As per 2019-21 knowledge, the fertility fee of Muslims was 2.36, a lot nearer to the alternative degree. Also, the hole between the fertility ranges of Hindu and Muslim girls (B-A in desk) has sharply decreased from 0.81 to 0.42 in the twenty years. This development holds true even among the many most populous States (Table 2).

Table 2 | The desk reveals the TFR of Hindu and Muslim girls for the 5 most populous States in two durations.

Excerpts from a authorities press launch dated December 6, 2006, quoted Dr. Singh as follows: “I believe our collective priorities are clear. Agriculture, irrigation and water resources, health, education…along with programmes for the upliftment of SC/STs, other backward classes, minorities and women and children…We will have to devise innovative plans to ensure that minorities, particularly the Muslim minority, are empowered to share equitably in the fruits of development. They must have the first claim on resources…” While Dr. Singh’s assertion was geared toward all weak sections of society, his emphasis on Muslims was singled out by Mr. Modi.

Table 3 | The desk reveals the share of females and males throughout non secular teams who didn’t attend college/full 12 years of education.

Dr. Singh’s fear about all weak sections, particularly Muslims, is backed by knowledge that present that Muslims lagged behind different non secular teams on a number of indicators when he made these remarks. Table 3 reveals that throughout sexes, the share of Muslims who didn’t go to highschool was a lot greater than different non secular teams in 2005-06. While a better share of Muslims continued to not go to highschool even in 2019-21, the hole narrowed. Similarly, the share of Muslims who accomplished 12 years of education was the bottom amongst all of the non secular teams in 2005-06 and continued to be so in 2019-21.

Also learn: Recourse to hate: On the Prime Minister’s speech in Rajasthan

Table 4 | The desk reveals the neonatal mortality fee (NMR) and under-five mortality fee (U5MR) amongst Hindus and Muslims in 1998-99, 2005-06 and 2019-21. NMR refers back to the variety of deaths through the first month of life per 1,000 dwell births. The decrease the determine, the higher.

The lower in NMR amongst Hindus has been a lot larger than amongst Muslims. In 1998-99, the NMR amongst city Hindus was 36.6, which was a lot greater than the 25.9 amongst city Muslims. The hole narrowed in 2005-06 to 30.9 amongst city Hindus and 21.6 amongst city Muslims. In 2019-21, the NMR of city Hindus additional decreased to 18.4, which was decrease than the 18.7 recorded amongst city Muslims. A greater drop in NMR among the many Hindu inhabitants in comparison with the Muslim inhabitants was additionally seen in rural areas. An evaluation of U5MR additionally reveals an analogous development.

With inputs from Rachita Tanya Rabboni and Sruthi B.

Source: National Family Health Surveys

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