Celtics vs. Cavs second-round playoff preview, odds and prediction initially appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics exorcised some current playoff demons by dispatching the Miami Heat within the first spherical of the 2024 NBA playoffs.
They’ll have the chance to do extra exorcising in Round 2.
Boston will face the Cleveland Cavaliers within the Eastern Conference semifinals after the Cavs beat the Orlando Magic in Game 7 on Sunday. It’s the Celtics’ fourth playoff sequence towards Cleveland previously 10 years, with the Cavs profitable the earlier three in 2015, 2017 and 2018.
Quite a bit has modified since then, in fact: LeBron James took his abilities from Cleveland to Los Angeles, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — thrust into beginning roles throughout that 2018 sequence at age 19 and 21, respectively — have blossomed into All-Stars for Boston.
The Celtics are the clear favourite this 12 months after a dominant 64-18 common season, however Kristaps Porzingis’ calf damage — which is predicted to sideline him for all the second spherical — may complicate their path, whereas Donovan Mitchell will likely be wanting to play spoiler towards what may be his favourite NBA opponent (extra on that later).
So, how will this one play out? Here’s a full sequence preview that includes a recap of the groups’ regular-season matchups, keys to victory for every squad and our sequence prediction.
Series schedule
Here’s a have a look at the Celtics’ full second-round schedule, with tip-off occasions already set for Games 1 by means of 4.
Tune into NBC Sports Boston an hour earlier than tip-off of every sport for Celtics Pregame Live, at halftime for Celtics Halftime Live and instantly after every sport for Celtics Postgame Live.
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Regular season head-to-head
The Celtics trailed by as many as 15 factors early within the groups’ first assembly however outscored Cleveland in every of the ultimate three quarters to grind out a house win. Tatum and Brown scored 25 apiece whereas all 5 Boston starters reached double digits in a balanced scoring effort.
Two nights later, the Celtics once more fended off a pesky Cavs staff led by Donovan Mitchell (31 factors, eight rebounds, six assists), Caris LeVert (26 factors) and Darius Garland (19 factors). In a near-carbon copy of their earlier assembly, all 5 C’s starters scored in double figures with Tatum (27 factors) and Brown (22 factors) main the best way.
The Celtics led by 22 factors coming into the fourth quarter and appeared on their approach to a season sequence sweep. Then Dean Wade occurred.
The Cavs position participant exploded for 20 factors within the fourth quarter, hitting 5 of 5 3-pointers and 7 of seven shot makes an attempt to assist Cleveland storm again for a shocking victory regardless of enjoying with out Mitchell. Tatum had an opportunity to win the sport on the ultimate possession however missed a last-second jumper as time expired.
All three of Boston’s matchups with the Cavs have been determined by fewer than 10 factors, suggesting this may very well be a way more tightly-contested sequence than Round 1, the place the Celtics led by as many as 27 factors in all 4 of their victories over Miami.
Tale of the Tape
Here’s how the Celtics and Cavs in contrast in a number of notable statistical classes in the course of the common season, with Boston holding the sting in all however one class. (NBA rank in parentheses.)
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The Celtics will win the sequence if…
They preserve two components constant: effort and tempo.
The Celtics confirmed a puzzling lack of the previous of their Game 2 loss to the Heat, however responded ratcheting up the defensive depth in Games 3, 4 and 5. While the Cavs are way more proficient offensively than Miami, the C’s are virtually unimaginable to beat after they’re profitable 50/50 balls and are linked defensively.
On offense, Boston supplied a blueprint for achievement with out Porzingis in Game 5 by cranking up the tempo and protecting the ball shifting, hitting 16 of 40 3-pointers whereas racking up 23 assists with eight gamers recording a number of helpers.
The Celtics have been 43-10 this season after they tried not less than 40 3-pointers and 54-11 after they handed out not less than 23 assists. When the ball stopped shifting and the tempo slowed, that is when Boston’s offense bumped into bother.
The one silver lining of Porzingis’ absence is that it ought to drive the Celtics to extend their ball motion and push the tempo as a substitute of letting Porzingis go 1-on-1 within the publish. If they’ll replicate what we noticed in Game 5 towards a much less bodily Cavs staff, a spot within the Eastern Conference Finals awaits.
The Cavs will win the sequence if…
Their Big Two turns into the Big Three (or Four).
Mitchell is a postseason stud who’s scored 30 or extra factors in 23 of his 52 profession playoff video games, together with a 50-piece in Game 6 towards the Magic and 39 factors within the Game 7 clincher. He’s additionally a Celtics killer: His 29.6 factors per sport towards Boston are essentially the most he is scored towards any NBA opponent (minimal 5 video games performed).
The Celtics’ sport plan ought to begin with containing Mitchell and Garland, Cleveland’s second-leading scorer and main assister. But the Cavs have two position gamers able to burning the C’s: Caris LeVert and Max Strus.
LeVert dropped 26 factors on Boston again in December and has scored 40 or extra factors towards the Celtics twice in his profession. Strus, in the meantime, drilled eight 3-pointers in a three-game span towards Boston as a member of the Heat to assist Miami win the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.
Mitchell is totally able to profitable not less than one sport on his personal, and if he will get assist from his supporting solid, that quantity may improve.
Another storyline to watch: Big man Jarrett Allen, who averaged 17 factors and 13.8 rebounds in Games 1 by means of 4 towards Orlando, has missed the final three video games resulting from a rib damage. He and fell huge man Evan Mobley are each wonderful defenders as effectively who may make it tough for Boston to attain within the paint.
Odds
Unsurprisingly, the Celtics enter this sequence as heavy favorites. They’re nonetheless the odds-on favorites to win the NBA title forward of the Denver Nuggets.
Prediction
Celtics in six.
The Cavs aren’t the Heat, people. Mitchell has a confirmed playoff observe file and varieties a powerful backcourt alongside Garland. Big males Mobley and Allen (if wholesome) may give Boston bother on each ends with Porzingis possible sidelined for all the sequence.
The Celtics are title favorites for a motive, although. They’re immensely proficient on each ends — Derrick White’s emergence as Boston’s third-leading scorer is a game-changer offensively — and confirmed spectacular focus and maturity of their three consecutive wins over a scrappy Heat staff in Round 1.
Mitchell might put the Cavs on his again in a single sport, and the C’s might go chilly past the arc in one other. But the Celtics are too good for this sequence to last more than six video games.