Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 have been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and 18 by the BJP.
Kolkata:
West Bengal’s 42 seats make it the third-largest contributor of MPs to the Lok Sabha however what has made the state much more necessary and attention-grabbing in these Lok Sabha elections is the keenly fought contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with neither facet keen to present any quarter.
At NDTV’s particular present ‘Battleground’ on Saturday, hosted by Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, a panel of specialists and spokespersons from the BJP and TMC dissected each challenge that would play a task in both occasion getting an higher hand and in addition shared their ideas on what drives violence throughout elections in West Bengal.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee – and a Presidential-style contest between them – dominated the dialogue, the 2 different details that bought loads of consideration have been the Sandeshkhali controversy and the welfare push by each events.
Everyone, barring the spokespersons in fact, appeared to agree that the competition within the state goes to be a neck and neck one and the battle goes to be one in every of tremendous margins.
Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 have been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and the BJP had made large inroads and achieved victory in 18. Far from resting on its laurels, the BJP has been relentless in its quest to extend its vote share since then, however the Trinamool Congress has additionally fought tooth and nail to carry on to its turf.
Pointing to how razor-thin the margins are within the state, Sanjay Kumar, Professor on the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) stated, “West Bengal is a state where the regional party is very strong but the BJP is putting up a fierce contest. The BJP has defeated the Congress in many states but it seems to be on the back foot when it comes to contesting against regional parties, but Bengal is an exception. I think there is a neck-and-neck fight. This is a battleground in the real sense.”
“There is a contest in every seat. In 2019, the difference in vote share between the parties was just three per cent. The difference in seats was also of only four. If the votes swing by 2 per cent either way… if the BJP’s vote share goes up by 2-3 per cent, the TMC can lose 7-8 seats and if the opposite happens and the BJP loses 4-5 per cent of votes it can be reduced to single digits,” he stated.
Adding so far, political strategist Amitabh Tiwari stated there have been 22 seats in 2019 the place the margin of victory was lower than 10% or 1 lakh votes – and these have been cut up evenly between the TMC and the BJP. “So there is definitely a ‘kaante ki takkar’ (a neck-and-neck-fight) and this has become a seat-by-seat contest,” he stated.
‘Violence Vitiates Society’
Mr Pugalia identified there’s a dichotomy within the sense that whereas Bengal is taken into account a frontrunner by way of tradition and self-respect, it is usually one of the violent states in terms of political violence. To this, political analyst Swapan Dasgupta stated the violence is a legacy of the Left, which dominated Bengal for many years and even the Trinamool was a sufferer of this when it was preventing the CPM.
“Some of those rough-and-ready methods, unfortunately, have become the new normal in West Bengal and I think this is something that, regardless of which side you prefer, there has to be unanimity on stopping the violence. This vitiates society,” he stated.
Pointing to an attention-grabbing statistic, Mr Dasgupta stated no nationwide occasion has ever received a majority of seats within the Lok Sabha from West Bengal since 1971. He additionally stated that caste, along with class – which was the CPM’s dominant narrative – has made an entry in Bengal in 2019.
How Important Is Sandeshkhali?
Asked how necessary a task the problem of Sandeshkhali – the place there have been allegations of land seize, rape and sexual harassment towards a Trinamool strongman and his aides – can be within the elections, Amitabh Tiwari stated this will depend on how a lot the BJP could make it pervade the general public consciousness.
“In 2019, Mamata Banerjee and the TMC had more of a lead against the BJP among women voters than among men. The lead was roughly 4 per cent among women as against 2 per cent among men. This issue could become important because support among women has been a strong point of the TMC,” he stated.
The point out of Sandeshkhali sparked a heated debate between TMC Spokesperson Riju Dutta and BJP Spokesperson and West Bengal State Secretary Priyanka Tibrewal, particularly since Saturday was when a sting video by a non-public channel went viral by which a BJP chief purportedly says that no rapes or sexual harassment had taken place and girls have been satisfied to file such complaints on the instructions of senior occasion chief Suvendu Adhikari.
The BJP chief, Gangadhar Koyal, has claimed that his voice was edited and has additionally despatched a criticism to the CBI.
Firing the primary volley, Mr Dutta stated the BJP has “never understood and will never understand the diverse, pluralistic, democratic ethos of Bengal”.
“In a sting, a BJP block president is saying that the party’s Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari has paid Rs 2,000 to these women to file fake rape cases dating 7-8 months back. Can you imagine what a concocted conspiracy this is to defame Bengal. The BJP can debate till the cows come home that this is morphed but this is what their leaders are saying,” he stated.
Ms Tibrewal countered that Mamata Banerjee had initially stated that the victims have been mendacity and alleged the Trinamool Congress might have spent some huge cash to ensure the video went viral.
“The court has asked the CBI to probe this (Sandeshkhali allegations) and, in a hearing on Thursday, said there are similarities between the CBI report and the victims’ affidavits. This shows that such incidents have taken place there. At least 750 affidavits were given and the TMC wants to say 750 people are lying. Mamata Banerjee’s talk of nari shakti (women power) stands exposed today,” she stated.
When Mr Pugalia requested pointedly whether or not one thing occurred in Sandeshkhali, Mr Dutta stated, “Mistakes were made in Sandeshkhali. Excesses happened. But Sandeshkhali is a land issue. Some people misused the Trinamool symbol and grabbed land. But the politics being done on women’s bodies, that never happened. That has been exposed today. We have suspended the Trinamool leader and others have been thrown out of the party but Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and Prajwal Revanna are still stars for the BJP.”
Mr Kumar of the CSDS stated the problem of Sandeshkhali has most likely resonated extra amongst city, upper-class voters and never a lot among the many poorer lessons, which is a big vote base for the Trinamool Congress. “I am not getting into what’s true and what isn’t, but I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the vote,” he stated.
‘Integral Part of INDIA Bloc’
To a query on why the TMC was preventing alone in West Bengal and never as a part of INDIA alliance, Mr Dutta stated his occasion is an integral a part of the INDIA bloc and is with them.
“But we are with INC, the Indian National Congress, and not ARC, which is Adhir Ranjan Congress, because Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is the conduit pipe of the BJP in Bengal. He was BJP’s ears and eyes and now he is working as a direct agent of the BJP,” he alleged.
“As a result, when Mamata Banerjee, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Sitaram Yechury are having meetings in Delhi with the single objective of defeating the BJP, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is abusing Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress. And that is why we have said that, in Bengal, the TMC is the INDIA alliance. I will say this on record: Whatever seats the BJP is going to get in the 2024 general elections, TMC is going to get at least double of that,” the occasion spokesperson stated.
Clash Of The Titans?
On the problems in Bengal, Sanjay Kumar stated that whereas matters like unemployment and inflation are key, like they’re in different states, the battle in Bengal revolves round Mamata Banerjee to some extent.
Using the favored identify for the chief minister, ‘Didi’, Mr Kumar stated, “It’s about whether you like Didi or not. Just like the contest in the country revolves to a large extent around Prime Minister Modi. We are often asked whether the 2024 election is a presidential one, I say it isn’t. It’s a referendum in a way. In Bengal, it’s whether you are with Didi or against her. When this kind of politics happens, the issues also get buried to some extent,” he stated.
Mr Dasgupta stated that the TMC would need the main target to be on native points and stated the BJP can fall into the entice of claiming Mamata Banerjee ought to be eliminated. “If the BJP forgets this is a national election, about Prime Minister Narendra Modi – and unfortunately one or two BJP people have forgotten that – (then it can fall into the trap),” he stated.
Senior Journalist Nishtha Gautam stated her evaluation from talking to individuals of all hues in Kolkata factors to one thing unusual having occurred prior to now decade. “PM Modi and Ms Banerjee have emerged as doppelgangers of each other. The situation in West Bengal – Modi’s guarantees vs Mamata’s guarantees – it is exactly the same issues. The growth is happening without jobs, doles are being given out. If we talk about welfarism, both leaders have weaponised it very well for electoral gains.”
“Some voters say they hate Mamata Banerjee, they don’t want her but what is the alternative? They don’t even want Modi ji to have a stronger footprint. It is very strange.”
Other specialists additionally felt that the draw of the leaders and the sturdy welfare schemes will play a giant position however conceded that emotional components and last-minute selections can even make the choice swing on the final second.
Six of Bengal’s 42 seats have voted up to now and other people from the state will forged their ballots in all remaining phases as properly, till June 1. The outcomes can be declared three days after that.