2023 Update: ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid Poised to Strike the Moon in 2032—What You Need to Know!

An asteroid named 2024 YR4 has recently drawn attention due to an increase in its collision risk. Initially, experts estimated a 3.1 percent chance it would hit Earth in December 2032. Now, that risk has been upgraded to 4.3 percent—but not for Earth. This time, it’s aimed at the Moon.

While 4.3 percent might not sound alarming, it’s enough to spark interest. If 2024 YR4 were to impact the Moon, it wouldn’t destroy it or alter its course, but it could create a large crater. Such an event would be fascinating for scientists, allowing them to study crater formation firsthand.

This asteroid isn’t just another space rock; it’s sizable, measuring between 53 and 67 meters (about 174 to 220 feet). To put that in perspective, it’s similar in size to the asteroid that caused the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened a vast area in Siberia. Thankfully, more data has led to the conclusion that the likelihood of a collision with Earth is now virtually negligible.

As for the Moon, its collision risk had previously been estimated at 3.8 percent. Using new observations gathered by the James Webb Space Telescope in May 2025, researchers, led by Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, refined this estimate. However, it’s important to note that asteroid tracking is an ongoing process. More observations are needed to further adjust these numbers.

Asteroids like 2024 YR4 pass close to our planet every four years, providing scientists with regular opportunities to monitor them. Observations will continue, with the next close approach scheduled for December 2028. At that time, astronomers expect to gather more precise data about the asteroid’s trajectory and chances of impacting the Moon.

When it comes to public interest, social media has sparked discussions about the potential collision. Many people are excited about the possibility of witnessing a lunar impact, while others are skeptical about the threat posed by asteroids in general. Though such events are rare, the study of space rocks like 2024 YR4 is essential for understanding our solar system and protecting our planet.

NASA’s efforts in planetary defense are crucial. They continuously track and analyze asteroids to assess potential threats. For more detailed insights, check out resources from [NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory](https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/06/05/nasas-webb-observations-update-asteroid-2024-yr4s-lunar-impact-odds/).

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