The competition for Best Actor in the upcoming Oscars is heating up. Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are leading the pack, with each giving impressive performances in their respective films, *Marty Supreme* and *One Battle After Another*. While DiCaprio had a strong co-star recently, this time the narrative is different since *OBAA* is considered a Best Picture frontrunner, unlike *Killers of the Flower Moon*.
Michael B. Jordan is generating buzz, but unless *Sinners* surprises us by underperforming, he seems safe. It’s more likely he’ll break the all-time nomination record rather than miss out entirely. Interestingly, Wagner Moura, despite missing SAG nominations, won the Best Actor award at Cannes and took home the Golden Globe for drama. Statistical trends show that it’s rare for Cannes winners to miss an Oscar nod, although his SAG absence raises eyebrows. Historically, it’s uncommon for winners like Moura to not get a nomination, a situation last seen with Jim Carrey in *The Truman Show*.
The fight for the final nomination spot includes Ethan Hawke, Joel Edgerton, and Jesse Plemons. Hawke appears to have the best edge with strong showings in major precursors. Even though Edgerton missed SAG, he earned a PGA nomination. All three actors are on the BAFTA longlist, which adds an interesting twist as the nominations unfold. If Hawke misses out, it would mark a significant absence of LGBTQ representation in acting categories since 2016.
Online discussions reveal heightened interest in the Best Actor race. Forums like [awardsworthy](https://awardsworthy.org/) provide insights from fans and critics, digging deeper into contenders’ stats and histories. The data leads to some striking conclusions; since 2010, 17 actors who have hit six major precursors were nominated for Oscars every time. In contrast, Edgerton’s current trajectory shows no previous actor matched his three precursor wins and received an Oscar nod.
As for predictions, the final lineup currently looks like this:
- Timothée Chalamet – *Marty Supreme*
- Leonardo DiCaprio – *One Battle After Another*
- Michael B. Jordan – *Sinners*
- Wagner Moura – *The Secret Agent*
- Ethan Hawke – *Blue Moon*
- Jesse Plemons – *Bugonia*
- Joel Edgerton – *Train Dreams*
The Oscars continue to spark excitement among fans and film enthusiasts. Ultimately, the nominations can shift based on performances leading up to the ceremony, making this year’s race one to watch closely.
