On February 18, 2026, Statistics South Africa will release its inflation data for January. A key focus will be food prices, especially as concerns about foot-and-mouth disease grow.
Let’s look at some important points to keep in mind as we await this data.
First, food price inflation has been easing in recent months. In December 2025, it held steady at 4.4%, the same as November. Despite this, the average inflation rate for the previous year was slightly lower at 3.9%, down from 4.0% in 2024. The main culprits for the slower inflation included fruits, vegetables, and meats, thanks to good supply levels.
As we begin 2026, the fundamentals still support this trend. Grain prices have dropped over 30% compared to last year, largely due to a good harvest. South Africa’s 2024-25 grain harvest is estimated at about 20 million tonnes, a significant increase from the previous year. While maize exports have lagged—only 1.5 million tonnes were shipped out of a forecasted 2.4 million tonnes—this will likely leave plenty of stock for the coming year.
Looking ahead, favorable rainfall and increased planting in the current season, with 4.54 million hectares dedicated to summer grains and oilseeds, are encouraging. If the harvest is good, it could further pressure grain prices down. Globally, grain supplies are also strong, which bodes well for imports like rice and wheat, keeping prices in check.
Though recent flooding in Limpopo and Mpumalanga raised concerns about vegetable damage, most crops appear unharmed, especially potatoes. The concern remains with citrus quality due to flood impacts, but these factors are unlikely to significantly affect domestic food inflation.
Second, meat prices are still elevated, primarily due to past supply issues, including a temporary ban on poultry imports from Brazil caused by avian flu. This situation stirred panic, even though imports resumed once the threat was controlled. Another pressing issue is foot-and-mouth disease affecting the cattle industry. Experts suggest that as vaccinations ramp up in March 2026, we may see improvements.
Interestingly, while the number of cattle slaughtered decreased by about 5% in 2025 due to the disease, this does not necessarily indicate a shortage. Panic buying among consumers often drives prices up more than actual supply issues. In fact, despite export restrictions during past disease outbreaks, prices fell when supply stabilized.
Looking at consumer prices, it’s unlikely that meat prices will spike in the long term. Current trends in slaughtering and consumer demand will likely keep prices stable throughout 2026.
Overall, we expect South Africa’s consumer food price inflation to moderate this year. The combination of lower grain costs, strong fruit and vegetable supplies, and controlled meat prices are key factors that will likely lead to a decrease in food inflation.
Expert Insight: According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, the agricultural sector remains resilient amid these challenges. He adds that ongoing vaccinations and supply chain stability are crucial for keeping prices in check.
For more in-depth economic analysis, you can visit the Agricultural Business Chamber.
