The start of 2026 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year in terms of climate, according to scientists. We’ve seen alarming signs, from wildfires around the world to rising ocean temperatures and diminishing sea ice in the Arctic. Experts predict that the second half of the year may be even hotter, largely due to a phenomenon known as El Niño, which warms the ocean surface in tropical Pacific regions and affects global temperatures.
Friederike Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London, emphasizes that while El Niño is a natural cycle, its occurrence amid worsening global warming is problematic. She notes that many governments are moving backwards on climate goals despite evidence of climate change’s impacts.
Fires are a major concern. The Netherlands recently faced severe wildfires, prompting the government to request aid from the European Emergency Aid Coordination Center. As of early May 2026, over 160 million hectares worldwide have burned—making it the worst year for fires since 2012, according to the Copernicus European Earth Observation program.
Theodore Keeping, also from Imperial College, points out that this year’s fire season has begun unusually early. Though fire activity has not peaked everywhere, the combination of an early start and the anticipated effects of El Niño suggests we might face a tough year ahead. Looking at past El Niño events, we could see dryer, hotter conditions leading to increased fire risks in places like Australia, the northwest U.S., Canada, and the Amazon rainforest.
Research shows that climate change has increased the land affected by wildfires by nearly 16% from 2003 to 2019, although pinpointing the exact role of climate change in each fire can be complex.
But fires are just part of a larger climate crisis driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The ocean surface temperature last month was nearly the highest ever recorded for April, close to the 2024 peak. In the Arctic, sea ice coverage was 5% below average, ranking as one of the lowest for April since records began.
April 2026 became the third hottest April globally, following 2024 and 2025. This trend reflects a clear fact: global temperatures are rising due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily from burning fossil fuels.
The cyclical nature of El Niño, which is expected to heighten land surface temperatures globally between May and July, further complicates the situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests that this could be an intense event affecting rainfall and global climate patterns.
This interplay between natural phenomena and anthropogenic climate change illustrates the urgent need for continued attention and action against climate change. The WMO has also noted that 2024 was the warmest year recorded, a trend that seems likely to persist if current patterns continue.
To stay updated on climate-related events, the WMO provides regular climate bulletins that analyze trends like El Niño and its impacts on global weather patterns. You can find more information on their site here.
