In 2024, the average global temperature crossed a concerning threshold, rising over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This pivotal moment highlights a growing crisis: wars worldwide, including in Ukraine and Gaza, unfold against a backdrop of climate change.
The connection between war and climate change is increasingly evident, and it’s time to rethink our understanding of conflict in this context. Here are three key ways climate change intersects with war.
1. The Environmental Toll of War
War destroys far more than just lives. It causes significant environmental damage. We now realize how military activities contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Research suggests that military emissions are staggering: one study indicates that global military forces may emit more carbon than Russia, ranked fourth in overall emissions. For context, if the U.S. military were a country, it would rank as the 47th-largest emitter worldwide, between Peru and Portugal.
However, estimating military emissions is tricky. Many nations, like China and Russia, provide little to no emission data. Even in open economies, figures can be incomplete.
The ongoing war in Ukraine exemplifies this issue, disrupting international cooperation on climate efforts. Vital climate data that could help understand Arctic changes has become difficult to gather, highlighting how conflict complicates climate action.
2. Climate Change as a Catalyst for Conflict
Research indicates that climate change acts as a “threat multiplier,” worsening food and water scarcity, which can spark violence in vulnerable regions. Some conflicts, notably in the Middle East and the Sahel, have been termed “climate wars,” suggesting that climate stress played a role. Yet, it’s important to remember that the decision to wage war remains a choice made by individuals.
On a hopeful note, militaries worldwide are increasingly deployed for non-combat roles, such as disaster relief and recovery efforts. This shift reflects a recognition of climate-related emergencies and the need to adapt military practices in response.
3. Adapting Armed Forces
As geopolitical tensions rise, calls for demilitarization face resistance. Militaries must consider how to operate effectively in a changing climate, adjusting bases and equipment to withstand severe weather events. In 2018, hurricanes inflicted over $8 billion in damages on U.S. military infrastructure—a wake-up call for needed resilience.
Officials in countries like the UK are becoming aware of the energy transition’s impact on military operations. They face a choice: either remain heavy fossil fuel users or embrace an energy transition that aligns with a low-carbon future. Adapting to climate change isn’t just practical; it’s essential for operational effectiveness.
Understanding the links between climate change and armed conflict is crucial as we navigate the future. History teaches us that while the nature of war may stay consistent, its character evolves. Recognizing the climate crisis will be vital in shaping how future conflicts unfold—and how we can work to avoid them.
For more detailed research on military emissions and climate impact, see the [Conflict and Environment Observatory](https://ceobs.org/), which provides insightful analyses and findings related to this pressing issue.
