What went wrong, what went right, and what’s next? These questions are on everyone’s minds as world leaders prepare for COP30 in Brazil. The stakes have never been higher.
James Dyke, an earth system science expert at the University of Exeter, points out the mixed feelings about COP. “It’s easy to feel cynical,” he says, drawing a parallel to Winston Churchill’s quote about democracy. COP might be dysfunctional and riddled with conflicts of interest, but it’s still our best option for global climate discussions.
What is COP? It stands for the Conference of the Parties, the UN body that brings nations together to tackle climate change every year.
Oxfam sums it up well: it’s where climate promises are made—or broken. The upcoming meeting will mark 30 years since the first talks in Berlin in 1995, yet progress has been staggeringly slow.
Benoit Mayer, a climate law professor at the University of Reading, explains the challenge of achieving consensus among countries with vastly different interests. Oil-producing nations, small island developing states, and developed countries often clash. For instance, Saudi Arabia lobbied hard against the 1.5°C warming limit during the Paris Agreement discussions.
What complicates the situation is the fossil fuel industry’s significant influence. COP29 saw over 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists present—more than the combined delegates from the ten most affected nations.
Dyke notes that fossil fuels still account for a whopping 80% of global energy. “Transitioning from fossil fuels is tough due to their political and economic power,” he says, citing the influence of the oil industry in the U.S.
The Paris Agreement marked a turning point by setting a global warming target of 1.5°C and requiring nations to submit their own plans to cut emissions. Before 2015, predictions indicated a potential warming of 3.7°C to 4.8°C, which would make much of the Earth uninhabitable. Heat-related deaths in the UK alone could spike dramatically under such conditions.
Experts emphasize that achieving the 1.5°C goal remains critical. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that exceeding a 2.5°C rise drastically increases the risk of irreversible climate events.
While current policies may limit warming to about 2.5–2.7°C by 2100, compliance with the Paris Agreement has been inconsistent. Less than a third of countries have submitted updated plans, and significant polluters like the U.S. have fallen behind in their commitments.
Another topic is ‘loss and damage’—the impacts of climate change on vulnerable nations. Developing countries like Bangladesh, which contribute minimally to global emissions, face devastating consequences from severe floods and storms. At last year’s COP29, nations acknowledged this issue and aimed for considerable annual climate financing. Yet progress is slow, with funding still far below requirements.
Dr. Nandan Mukherjee, engaged in loss-and-damage discussions for years, expresses concern. “The root cause of climate change is still rising,” he warns, but he remains hopeful about grassroots solutions emerging from local communities facing climate challenges head-on.
What can we expect at COP30? In Belém, Brazil, countries will discuss how to implement previous agreements while setting new, more ambitious targets. Aside from emissions goals, they’ll also focus on policies for climate justice and support for at-risk nations.
Mayer suggests that a successful outcome would see nations raise their ambitions. Yet, Dr. Mukherjee isn’t overly optimistic about achieving the necessary funding. He notes, “Right now, the loss and damage fund holds only hundreds of millions, not billions.”
Nonetheless, Dyke believes optimism lies beyond COP. “Climate action is happening at the community level,” he points out. “Local governments and initiatives are emerging as powerful responses.” This collective movement may just be the key to addressing what could be the most significant challenge of our time.
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