Researchers Warn: How Climate Change is Intensifying the EU’s Chocolate Crisis

Climate change and wildlife loss are causing a “chocolate crisis” in the EU. A recent report highlights that cocoa is one of six key crops vulnerable to environmental threats.

In 2023, over two-thirds of cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat, and maize imported into the EU came from countries poorly prepared for climate challenges, according to UK consultants Foresight Transitions. This includes three major crops—cocoa, wheat, and maize—where two-thirds of imports originated from areas with declining biodiversity. The report makes it clear: climate change is making agriculture less resilient.

Camilla Hyslop, the lead author, pointed out that these threats aren’t just theoretical. They are already affecting businesses, job markets, and the prices of food. “As these issues worsen, consumers will bear the brunt,” she stated.

The researchers used trade data from Eurostat and ranked it against environmental security data. They assessed vulnerability to climate change and the status of biodiversity. This led to the finding that many imports came from countries ranked as low to medium on both scales. Alarmingly, the EU imports 90% of its maize from countries with similarly low climate readiness. For cocoa, the figures are even more concerning: 96.5% is sourced from regions roughly exposed to climate challenges.

This scenario is critical. Most cocoa comes from West African nations facing climate and biodiversity crises. Extreme weather has already driven up sugar prices and caused cocoa supply shortages. The report urges chocolate manufacturers to invest in climate adaptation and biodiversity protection to support these vulnerable regions.

Paul Behrens, an environmental researcher at Oxford, emphasizes the report’s grim implications for food security. He explained that even though the EU grows a good portion of its own food, it remains exposed to risks in key supply chains.

Meanwhile, Uganda, which provides 10% of the EU’s coffee, faces low climate readiness and diminished biodiversity, raising concerns about its future stability as a coffee supplier. Joseph Nkandu, a coffee agribusiness leader from Uganda, highlighted the immediate need for better access to climate financing to help farmers adapt to unpredictable weather patterns.

Shifts in diet could be part of the solution. Marco Springmann, a food researcher from Oxford, argues that moving toward healthier, more sustainable food choices is vital for resilience against climate shocks. Currently, a significant amount of imported grains is used to feed animals, which contributes to the climate issues we face.

In summary, the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and food security are pressing concerns for the EU and its agricultural supply chains. With the right investments and dietary changes, there is potential to build a more resilient future.

For more on the impacts of climate change on agriculture, you can read the full report from the European Climate Foundation.

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