How Climate Change Could Slash India’s GDP by 10% by 2100: Key Survey Insights

The air feels thick as the monsoon stalls. Crops struggle under the heat, and farmers worry over parched fields. In cities, the familiar power cuts return as temperatures rise. Across India, the impact of climate change is hitting hard—both in daily life and economically.

A recent survey by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and CVoter reveals a grim outlook. They spoke to over 10,000 adults across India from December 2024 to February 2025, using mobile phones for interviews. This extensive study reflects the voices of diverse communities, matching India’s demographics closely.

The findings are alarming. Extreme weather is no longer just a forecast; it’s reshaping lives and threatening the economy. India’s rapid growth as the seventh-largest economy in the G20 took years to build, yet unchecked climate change could slash GDP by 2% by 2050. By 2100, this figure could rise to a staggering 10%, equating to about 237 billion euros in potential losses.

About 60% of India’s workforce is employed in agriculture, contributing 16% to the GDP. But rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and violent storms are devastating farms. Experts predict severe losses in staple crops like rice and wheat, which could cost between 43 to 81 billion euros by mid-century. Farmers in unirrigated areas could see their incomes drop by as much as 25%.

Urban areas aren’t safe either. Flooding, cyclones, and rising sea levels threaten coastal cities. Studies show that a significant portion of India’s land—12%—is at risk of river flooding. Without better protection, damage from sea-level rise could reach 496.7 billion euros by 2100. Additionally, forced migration could rack up costs of nearly 580 million euros.

Flooding could be catastrophic, leading to potential damages of up to 2.4 trillion euros annually by the century’s end under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, rising temperatures will increase the need for cooling solutions, straining energy resources and driving up electricity prices. Tourism, another vital sector, may also suffer as visitors steer clear of disaster-prone regions.

The YPCCC-CVoter survey suggests that people across India recognize these shifts. The impacts are visible in everyday life, affecting not just jobs but the very fabric of the economy. Experts believe action is urgently needed. Without swift and collective measures, India’s bright economic future could quickly dim.

This isn’t just about climate. It’s about survival. As people see their farms dry up and cities flood, the critical question remains: will India take the necessary steps to safeguard its future?

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