Will Tom Thibodeau’s Stubborn Starting Lineup Sabotage the Knicks’ NBA Finals Aspirations?

The New York Knicks have relied heavily on their starting lineup more than any other NBA team this season. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns spent 940 minutes together on the court during the regular season. Only two other lineups even came close to that amount. Coach Tom Thibodeau is known for sticking with his key players, leading to mixed results.

Thibodeau has been coaching for over a decade, and in four of those seasons, one of his players topped the league in minutes per game. His tendency to overuse starters has come back to bite him, especially in the playoffs. The Knicks’ starters logged 308 postseason minutes but were outscored by 50 points. Historically, such a negative differential is rare for heavily used lineups. In fact, data shows that only seven other lineups since 2008 have experienced similar struggles.

Despite the backlash, Thibodeau tends to return to the same starters. While most of the Knicks’ lineups are performing well, this group has faltered in crucial moments. In December, they had their best stretch with a plus-63 point differential over 241 minutes, but since then, they’ve struggled. Entering the Eastern Conference Finals, they had been outscored in four of their first twelve playoff games.

After a loss to the Pacers, Mikal Bridges highlighted the starters’ issues, suggesting they may be playing “too soft.” Their defense has been weak, posting a troubling 117.6 defensive rating in the playoffs, which would rank them near the bottom in the regular season. This performance is surprising, considering Thibodeau’s reputation as a defensive coach.

Interestingly, New York’s bench players, particularly Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson, have excelled defensively. Yet, the lineup combinations frequently overlook these strengths. Thibodeau’s decision to keep Hart in the rotation, despite not maximizing his defensive potential alongside the starters, has raised eyebrows. His energy is often more effective coming off the bench.

Robinson’s role also merits discussion. Despite his defensive prowess and rebounding ability, Robinson is often deployed as a reserve. When he’s on the floor, the Knicks dominate the boards, securing 58.8% of rebounds compared to just 50.5% when he’s sidelined. If Thibodeau started Robinson, he might manage his minutes better, easing the strain on a player who is still building endurance after an injury.

Fans have voiced their frustration, calling for changes in the lineup. Thibodeau’s reluctance to adapt could cost the Knicks valuable wins. They are now two losses away from elimination, highlighting a stark reality: correct player placement is essential. In the end, the decisions made now could determine whether the Knicks move forward or stay stagnant.

The current situation mirrors historical patterns in sports where reliance on flawed strategies has led teams to fall short of their potential. This time, the Knicks need to realize their players’ strengths and adapt their strategy to keep their championship hopes alive. They must act fast, as time is running out, and every game counts.

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