Exploring the Key Geographic Divides Influencing New Jersey’s Primary: Insights from Steve Kornacki

Rep. Mikie Sherrill is heading into the New Jersey gubernatorial primary as a strong favorite for the Democratic nomination. She has been active on both New York and Philadelphia television, backed by many party leaders, and polling suggests she has a solid lead. However, uncertainty looms. Recent public polling has been scarce, and changes to how ballots are structured could weaken the impact of her endorsements.

While Sherrill has gained traction, her opponents are also making strides. The primary landscape shows competition, notably in the political geography of New Jersey. South Jersey is home to a traditional political machine that supports former state Senator Steve Sweeney, the only candidate from that region. However, only about 30% of primary votes will come from South Jersey, which could limit Sweeney’s reach. Furthermore, his affiliation with the political machine might be hurting him, as a recent poll indicated many voters see him as a “typical machine politician.”

In North Jersey, rival candidates have the advantage of recognition. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is expected to command a strong vote in Essex County, the state’s most populous county with a significant Black community. His progressive stance and activism, including a recent protest at an ICE facility, resonate with voters seeking change. On the other hand, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is also appealing to the progressive base, creating a divide in support between them.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer is taking a more centrist route, focusing on tax cuts and living costs. He flipped a traditionally Republican district to win his seat in Congress and has secured endorsements from local party leaders. His appeal lies in suburban Bergen County, where he hopes to capitalize on his established political presence. Yet, his endorsement situation is less favorable than Sherrill’s, as key organizations have rallied around her instead.

Sherrill’s campaign is gaining momentum thanks to endorsements from major county organizations. Her diverse background as a Navy helicopter pilot adds to her appeal, especially in a state where voters are looking for strong, distinctive candidates. Although she lacks “the line” from county parties that would have traditionally placed her favorably on the ballot, she still remains the favorite among Democrats.

Polling suggests Sherrill’s perceived electability plays a crucial role; most Democratic voters believe she stands the best chance in the general election. Each candidate has their core supporters, but Sherrill’s broad appeal could lead her to success in the primary.

Looking ahead, the lack of polling could create surprises on election day. The modifications to how the primary operates add an element of unpredictability, making this race particularly intriguing. Historically, the dynamics favored Sherrill, but recent shifts could change the outcome.

As the primary unfolds, the stakes for New Jersey’s political landscape are high, with varying opinions on the candidates making for a lively discussion among voters.



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