Urgent: Only Three Years Left to Achieve 1.5°C Climate Goal, Experts Urge Action

The latest warning from climate scientists is startling: we could breach the critical 1.5°C temperature limit in just three years if we keep emitting carbon dioxide at current rates. This comes from over 60 leading climate experts in a recent assessment, showing how dire the situation has become.

Back in 2015, nearly 200 nations agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This was a hopeful step towards reducing the severe effects of climate change. Yet, instead of cutting back on fossil fuels and preserving forests, many countries are still using record amounts of coal, oil, and gas.

“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said Prof. Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. He points out that we are witnessing unprecedented changes, like faster sea-level rise and overall warming. These changes have been linked directly to rising emissions.

In early 2020, scientists felt humanity had about 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left to emit for a decent chance of staying below that 1.5°C limit. Fast forward to early 2025, and that “carbon budget” is down to just 130 billion tonnes. At our current emission rate of 40 billion tonnes per year, we could run out of budget in only three years.

This means we are on a path to breach the Paris Agreement, although it may take a bit longer for temperatures to officially exceed the 1.5°C mark.

Last year, for the first time, global average air temperatures hit more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While one warm year doesn’t count as a full breach of the Paris Agreement, it signals a concerning trend fueled primarily by human activity. Recent research estimates that this warming has been increasing by about 0.27°C per decade—much faster than seen in the past.

Interestingly, there’s some hope: emission increases seem to be slowing down as cleaner technologies are adopted. Yet, rapid and significant cuts in emissions are still vital. The impacts of climate change become more severe with each increase in temperature. Every fraction of a degree matters in terms of avoiding greater hardship for vulnerable populations.

Recent statistics reveal a troubling reality. The rate at which heat is building up in Earth’s climate system has doubled compared to a few decades ago. About 90% of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, causing marine life disruption and rising sea levels. This has doubled the rate of global sea-level rise since the 1990s, putting millions at risk, especially in coastal areas.

Experts stress that we must act now. Prof. Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London warns that relying on technologies to pull CO2 back out of the atmosphere might not be a perfect solution. “For larger exceedance of 1.5°C, it becomes less likely that removals will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today’s emissions,” he stated.

While the outlook is grim, the possibility of impactful change remains. By reducing emissions in the coming decade, we can make a significant difference in warming rates. Every small step we take today can lead to a more favorable future for our planet.

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