Prepare for Impact: How Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Unleash ‘Bullet-Like’ Meteors on Earth If It Strikes the Moon in 2032

New simulations suggest that the asteroid 2024 YR4, often called a “city killer,” could send small debris toward Earth if it strikes the moon in 2032. This event could create a striking meteor shower and pose risks to satellites orbiting our planet.

2024 YR4 measures about 200 feet (60 meters) across. Though initially thought to be a potential threat to Earth, further studies show there’s no chance it will hit our planet. However, the likelihood of a collision with the moon has risen to 4.3%, meaning it could impact the lunar surface instead.

In June, researchers conducted computer simulations that estimate an impact could eject up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of material from the moon. If the asteroid strikes the Earth-facing side of the moon, about 10% of that debris might be drawn into Earth’s atmosphere over the following days.

Paul Wiegert, a solar system dynamics expert at Western University, noted that such an impact would be significant, comparing it to a large nuclear explosion. This event would mark the largest lunar strike in at least 5,000 years.

While the debris won’t likely pose a direct threat to people on the ground, it could create a spectacular meteor shower as fragments enter Earth’s atmosphere. Wiegert suggests this display might last several days and could be visible worldwide.

However, our satellites could be at risk. The number of spacecraft orbiting Earth is expected to increase by 2032, raising the chance of satellite collisions with meteors. As Wiegert explained, even a small rock traveling very fast can cause serious damage to satellites, which are crucial for communication and navigation.

If the odds of a lunar impact continue to rise, agencies might consider trying to change the asteroid’s path. Wiegert feels that 2024 YR4 could be a good candidate for testing our planetary defense systems, similar to NASA’s successful attempt to redirect the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022.

As we move closer to 2032, keeping an eye on 2024 YR4 will be crucial. Increased awareness and funding for asteroid tracking will be essential, especially considering potential budget cuts to NASA that might hinder efforts to monitor such dangerous objects in the future.

In sum, while we may enjoy an awe-inspiring shower of meteors from any 2024 YR4 debris, the risk it poses to our satellites is a reminder of the importance of proactive space stewardship.

For more about asteroid tracking and planetary defense initiatives, check out reliable sources like NASA and the European Space Agency.

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