Study Finds Rising Temperatures Threaten Global Food Supply Despite Adaptation Efforts

As the world heats up, our food supply is at risk. A recent study in Nature highlights a startling fact: for every 1°C rise in global temperatures, we could lose an average of 120 calories in our daily diet. That’s 4.4% of what we currently consume.

Hannah Hess, a researcher with the Climate Impact Lab, emphasizes that these effects are not just future concerns—they’re happening now.

The study focused on six key crops: rice, wheat, maize, soybean, sorghum, and cassava, which together provide two-thirds of global calories. By 2100, if emissions remain high, these crops might see yields drop by nearly 30%.

Interestingly, wealthier nations may suffer even greater losses, reaching up to 41%. This is because they often farm in some of the world’s most fertile areas, which are also vulnerable to climate change. For example, wheat could plummet in places like northern India, potentially losing up to 100% of its yield in some regions. Countries like the U.S., Canada, and China might experience losses of 30 to 40%.

Wheat is sensitive to both high daytime and nighttime temperatures, making it especially at risk as the planet warms. Northern India is projected to suffer severe declines, while rice might see some gains in select regions due to its resilience against hot nights. However, that’s not guaranteed everywhere.

Adaptation strategies—like changing crop varieties or adjusting planting times—can help but will only cushion about one-third of the expected losses by century’s end. Michael Greenstone, another co-author of the study, notes that as countries grow wealthier, they sometimes take on more risk, believing they can manage it. This can backfire, especially for crops like wheat.

Cassava, crucial for many in low-income regions, is also at risk, with potential losses of around 40% in Sub-Saharan Africa. The impact of climate change on food security won’t be even; wealthier regions and poorer countries will feel the most significant effects.

Surprisingly, tropical regions with high rainfall may fare somewhat better, as their crops are already adapted to heat. However, most of the world is caught in the middle—not hot enough to thrive under warming, yet not cool enough to bypass its negative impacts.

Without major cuts in emissions, we could see a reduction of 17.6% in daily calorie availability by the century’s end, translating to nearly one-fifth of our current intake.

Hess warns that if we care about food security, we must address climate change seriously. Adaptation is helpful, but it’s not a panacea. The message is clear: as temperatures rise, food systems everywhere will be under pressure. No region is immune to these challenges.

For context, consider how climate patterns have shifted over the decades. In the 1970s, scientists began to document the effects of rising temperatures on agriculture. Fast forward to today, and the data make it clear that our window to act is closing.

Additional Facts

Recent research from the U.N. indicates that nearly 690 million people are currently undernourished, a number likely to rise if food production continues to decline due to climate change.

In summary, the challenge we face is immense but not insurmountable. Increased awareness and efforts to combat climate change can pave the way for more resilient food systems in the future. For anyone interested in more information, you can dive deeper into the challenges posed by climate change by checking reputable sources like the Global Climate Change Report.

Source link

climate change,agriculture,Food