Japan’s political landscape is shaking. A recent election suggests that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition might lose control of the upper house, which could lead to significant political instability. This is especially concerning as a tariff deadline with the US approaches.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito hoped to secure at least 50 seats in the 248-seat upper house. However, exit polls indicate they may only win between 32 to 51 seats. If their numbers drop below 46, it would be their worst performance since 1999. This follows a disappointing showing in the lower house elections last October, making Ishiba’s government vulnerable to no-confidence motions and internal party pressure for a leadership change.
After the polls closed, Ishiba acknowledged the “harsh result” but affirmed his intention to remain as prime minister. He emphasized the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations with the US, which need to be resolved by August 1 to avoid heavy tariffs on Japanese exports.
The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to gain seats, while the far-right Sanseito party, which has gained traction with its nationalist rhetoric, could increase its presence from one to as many as 15 seats.
A growing concern for voters is rising consumer prices, particularly in essentials like rice. This frustration has made opposition parties offering tax cuts and increased welfare spending more appealing. David Boling from the Eurasia Group noted that many households support lowering the consumption tax to combat inflation, a position that the LDP opposes. This disconnect has allowed rival parties to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction.
Sanseito, founded during the pandemic, has attracted attention with conspiracy theories and nationalist themes, successfully bringing fringe ideas into mainstream politics. It’s unclear whether they can maintain this momentum like other far-right parties in the world.
As Japan grapples with these issues, the demographics are shifting. Foreign residents reached a record of about 3.8 million last year—around 3% of the population. While that’s still low compared to the US or Europe, it reflects a changing society that some voters feel is ignoring their needs.
In summary, Japan’s political situation is evolving rapidly. The recent election results could lead to significant changes, as economic concerns clash with emerging political sentiments.
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