Revolutionary Breakthrough: How Scientists Can Predict the Next Eruption of Mount Etna!

A new technique to monitor magma shifts beneath Mount Etna could change how scientists predict eruptions. Mount Etna, on Sicily, is Europe’s largest active volcano. People have recorded its eruptions for over 2,700 years, although its activity stretches back 500,000 years.

The most recent eruption in June 2025 sent ash soaring 4 miles high and triggered a hot lava avalanche. Thankfully, officials had predicted it and issued warnings. However, forecasting can still be tricky.

Researchers at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) have found a unique way to analyze eruptions using a concept called the b value. This value reflects the ratio of small earthquakes to large ones in an area. As magma rises, this ratio can change, providing insights into a volcano’s stress state.

Marco Firetto Carlino, a lead researcher, explains, “Monitoring the b value helps us understand the stages of magma movement.” They studied 20 years of earthquake data and found a strong link between the b value and Mount Etna’s activity, showing just how critical this measurement can be.

Mount Etna is located where the African and European tectonic plates meet. A vertical crack in the Earth’s crust allows magma to reach the surface. Below the volcano, the crust is thick—up to 19 miles. As magma moves upward, it doesn’t just refill one chamber; rather, it feeds a complex network of storage zones at various depths.

Firetto Carlino highlights that the deepest magma store lies 7 miles down, feeding other zones that extend up to 4 miles below the surface. Researchers analyzed seismic activity below Mount Etna from 2005 to 2024, specifically how patterns differed across crustal areas.

Interestingly, regions where magma is active have higher b values. This is because these zones experience more small earthquakes as the rocks weaken from the magma’s movements. Conversely, stable areas typically see larger earthquakes due to the rock’s strength and ability to hold stress.

By tracking the b value, researchers can gain insights into the magma’s journey from great depths to the surface, allowing them to better forecast eruptions. Firetto Carlino calls this method “a powerful way” to understand volcanic behavior.

Moreover, this technique might be useful for monitoring other volcanoes, as long as there’s enough earthquake data. A similar approach could enhance our understanding of volcanic systems worldwide.

By advancing our knowledge of volcano behavior, scientists aim to improve safety and preparedness for communities living near these magnificent but unpredictable natural wonders.



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