SpaceX’s Starship is built to be fully reusable, aiming for multiple flights a day. However, it will take time to match the launch frequency of Falcon 9, which is well-established.
With its impressive capability, just two Starship flights could equal a year’s worth of new Starlink satellites. In fact, Starship can deliver up to 60 times more Starlink capacity into orbit compared to a Falcon 9 launch. This opens up exciting possibilities for SpaceX, especially in emerging markets like connecting satellites to smartphones and space-based computing.
Even with Starship’s advancements, many companies are stepping into the rocket launch space. For example, Blue Origin’s New Glenn is gearing up for its second test flight, offering hopes of quick turnaround launches.
Despite the new entrants, there’s a significant gap in launch capacity in the commercial market. Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, noted, “The industry is likely to remain supply-constrained through the balance of the decade.” This shortage could affect many upcoming satellite constellations that rely on timely launches.
Competitors like United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, and Relativity Space’s Terran R are all looking to carve out their share in this expanding market. Henry has raised an important point: can multiple medium and heavy lift providers sustain themselves simultaneously alongside Starship? Demand for launches remains high, which could allow new companies to make their mark.
China is also stepping up its space ambitions. The country’s two megaconstellations, Guowang and Qianfan, will require a massive boost in launches to deploy thousands of satellites. This indicates the global demand for space access is climbing steadily.
As we look to the future, how companies will address this demand remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: the race for space access is far from over.
