Just three years ago, the US was rethinking its ties with Saudi Arabia. President Biden aimed to make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman feel isolated for his role in journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. There was even a pause on arms sales to this key ally.
Fast forward to this week. Bin Salman stepped into the Oval Office to find a drastically different atmosphere. Former President Trump openly defended him, even rebuking a reporter who pressed on Khashoggi’s murder. This shows how much bin Salman’s image has changed in Washington.
What’s striking is the depth of recent announcements. They suggest that Trump is eager to minimize past grievances with bin Salman while enhancing relations that could benefit both parties. The Saudi kingdom has promised nearly $1 trillion in investments in the US. This financial commitment is likely a significant factor in Trump’s more welcoming stance.
The crown prince is getting smarter about leveraging power dynamics. For instance, he convinced Trump to drop a previous requirement for Saudi normalization with Israel before sealing defense and trade deals. This marks a notable shift from last year when the Biden administration insisted that all components—defense agreements, normalization with Israel, and a pathway for Palestinians—move forward together. Now, it seems Trump has separated these issues, allowing Saudi Arabia to achieve its defense and economic goals more quickly.
Among the key developments, Trump designated Saudi Arabia as a Major Non-NATO Ally and pushed forward plans to sell advanced fighter jets, similar to those flown by Israel. Additionally, both countries have launched AI cooperation to enhance economic ties and reduce oil dependency. They aim to explore nuclear energy collaboration and have signed critical minerals agreements.
In terms of regional ambitions, Trump is also backing bin Salman as he seeks to reshape Middle Eastern security, including efforts to stabilize Sudan. During their meeting, bin Salman emphasized the benefits these agreements would bring to both nations, saying, “Today is a very important time in our history.”
However, there are still notable gaps in their partnership. Saudi Arabia seeks assurances about nuclear capabilities and a more formal defense commitment from the US. Historical context matters here; the US has been wary of supporting Saudi nuclear ambitions, particularly concerning domestic uranium enrichment, which could lead to weaponization.
As Washington’s closest Arab ally, Qatar enjoys a robust defense relationship with the US, highlighted by its hosting the largest US airbase in the region. Comparatively, Saudi Arabia is pushing for equal or greater security guarantees, wanting a commitment that extends beyond Trump’s presidency.
Expert opinions suggest that a defense pact might bolster US interests in the region. Aaron David Miller from the Carnegie Endowment argues this could deter future threats and solidify Saudi Arabia’s alignment with the US. He draws parallels with historical US commitments, noting the last significant one was with Japan in 1960.
In a recent interview, bin Salman hinted at turning to alternative defense partners if the US does not solidify its commitment. His comments reflect growing concerns that Riyadh may pivot towards countries like China and Pakistan for security guarantees.
In a notable shift, Saudi Arabia has made closer ties with China, culminating in an agreement with Iran brokered by Beijing. This shows that while the US remains important, others are in the picture too. The kingdom’s expanding relationships signal a desire for diversified security options.
With public sentiment in Saudi Arabia toward Israel becoming less favorable, the calculus on normalization is shifting. Reports suggest bin Salman’s interest in normalizing ties depends now more on tangible benefits from the US, rather than the desire to maintain regional stability.
Ultimately, the future landscape of US-Saudi relations may hinge on a balance of military commitments and economic ties as competing global powers like China find their foothold in the Middle East.
