Current State of the Indian Rupee: What’s Happening?
The Indian rupee is facing tough times. It’s nearing 90 rupees for every US dollar, a situation fueled by global uncertainty and rising tariffs from the US. This ongoing pressure likely won’t ease until the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is finalized, which might bring back some much-needed dollar inflows.
As of November 24, 2025, data from the National Stock Exchange shows the currency trading at around 89.40 rupees per dollar. Over the past few years, the rupee has seen a steady decline. From approximately 82.3 rupees in May 2023, it sharply dropped, reaching near 88.7 by mid-November 2025.
Expert Insights
Experts like Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global, predict the rupee may soon slip into the 90-91 range against the dollar. He notes that as the global demand for US dollars rises, the pressure on the rupee continues. With interest rates in the US remaining high, the dollar’s demand stays strong, impacting many currencies, including the rupee.
Ajay Sahai, CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, suggests a weaker rupee could help exporters, especially those not relying heavily on imported goods. While some sectors like petroleum and electronics may struggle due to high import costs, others, such as handicrafts and textiles, could benefit from the situation.
Historical Context
It’s interesting to compare the current scenario with the past. For example, in 2013, the rupee traded at about 60 to the dollar, with exports reaching $313 billion. Today, with the rupee nearing 90, exports have only risen to $440 billion. Ajay Srivastava, a former trade officer, argues that high regulatory costs and tariffs are a bigger problem than the value of the rupee itself.
He points out that while a weaker rupee should boost exports, India’s complex trade regulations and high costs are major hurdles. However, there is hope that recent reforms might help level the playing field.
Economic Perspective
Pronab Sen, a seasoned economist and India’s first Chief Statistician, adds that the rapid decline in the rupee is largely due to portfolio investors withdrawing their money from the stock market. Such outflows can weaken the rupee quicker than trade deficits.
Yet, Sen reminds us that whether the rupee touches 90 or goes beyond, these figures are often mental constructs that don’t accurately reflect the economic health of India. He believes that once global economic uncertainties settle, foreign investments could flow back into the Indian market.
Conclusion
The current state of the rupee reveals the impact of global economics on local currencies. While challenges exist, particularly with high import costs and regulatory barriers, opportunities remain for sectors primed to adapt. It’s a time for businesses and policymakers to harness these insights for more effective strategies moving forward.
For more detailed information, you might find this report by the Reserve Bank of India insightful.
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RUPEE VS DOLLAR, INDIA–US BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT, FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTORS, RUPEE, GLOBAL TURMOIL PUSHES RUPEE TOWARD 90, RELIEF HINGES ON INDIA-US BTA
