Recent Developments in Taiwan and China Relations
In late December 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted significant military exercises called Justice Mission 2025. These drills simulated a blockade of Taiwan and came shortly after Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te took office. The exercises are seen as a way for the PRC to strengthen its military tactics and apply pressure on Taiwan and its allies.
The drills highlighted naval operations aimed at enforcing a blockade. While Chinese aircraft carriers weren’t involved, the exercises included amphibious and air assault rehearsals, aimed at isolating Taiwan. These actions were not just military; they were also a strategic move to influence public perception in Taiwan.
The U.S. Department of Defense released a report on December 23 assessing the PRC’s military capabilities. It noted advancements in technology, especially the integration of artificial intelligence and improvements in missile capabilities. The report indicated that the PRC plans to expand its fleet of aircraft carriers significantly by 2035, alongside advanced missile systems like the DF-27, which can strike targets across the Pacific, including parts of the U.S.
Experts believe this military buildup poses a serious risk to regional stability. According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, around 70% of people in the U.S. and neighboring countries are concerned about the PRC’s growing military assertiveness.
Taiwan’s Political Tensions
In Taiwan, political tensions are rising. The Legislative Yuan recently began impeachment proceedings against President Lai, a historic move for the nation. The opposition holds insufficient votes to remove him, making the action more symbolic than functional. Lai’s government faces pressure over its refusal to enact new laws, inciting further political unrest.
Taiwan’s upcoming local elections are set for November 2026, with presidential elections to follow in 2028. Concerns about PRC interference in these elections are growing, especially after reports surfaced that the PRC has been using AI to sway public opinion in Taiwan, which could influence election outcomes.
PRC’s Military Encroachment
The China Coast Guard (CCG) has increased its patrols around Taiwan, especially near the Kinmen Islands, aiming to normalize its presence there. These activities threaten Taiwan’s control over its waters and could prepare the ground for future military operations.
In December alone, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted numerous sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), an escalation that has been observed since Lai’s takeover. In total, the PLA logged 274 sorties that month, revealing the ongoing pressure Taiwan faces.
Additionally, multiple incursions with balloon surveillance have raised alarms. These balloons flew directly over Taiwan, sparking concerns about surveillance methods that avoid military confrontation.
Conclusion
As Taiwan navigates its internal political challenges, it remains under constant military and psychological pressure from the PRC. With upcoming elections and ongoing military maneuvers, the situation is delicate. Observers from major think tanks urge the need for heightened defensive preparations in Taiwan and increased collaborations with allies to safeguard its sovereignty.
For further insights into the evolving military landscape, you can refer to the full U.S. Department of Defense report here.
