Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Oman recently urged Donald Trump to avoid airstrikes against Iran. They feared that such actions could spark a massive conflict in the Middle East. This last-minute appeal appears to have influenced Trump, leading him to hold off on military action. Notably, Saudi Arabia denied the U.S. use of its airspace for any potential attacks.
On a diplomatic front, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reached out to counterparts in Iran, Oman, and Turkey to discuss the situation. Iran remains politically isolated from these Gulf states, largely due to its support for regional proxies and its stance on issues like the Palestinian state and territorial disputes with the UAE.
However, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been working to mend ties with Arab nations. For instance, he made a historic visit to Bahrain, the first by an Iranian minister since 2010, and traveled to Cairo multiple times in a bid to improve relations. This healing relationship has been significant, especially given that Saudi-Iranian tensions have been high in the past.
The Gulf states are highly aware of how Iran could disrupt maritime activities in the area. Araghchi has been trying to shift perceptions of Iran, suggesting it’s less of a threat to global stability than Israel, especially after a controversial Israeli airstrike in Doha last September intended to target Hamas negotiators.
In response to rising tensions, the U.S. has been proactive. After the Israeli strikes, which caught the U.S. off guard, the U.S. apologized to Qatar and assured its support. This is vital as the U.S. maintains its largest airbase in the region in Qatar, known as al-Udeid. Following threats from Tehran regarding attacks on U.S. positions if airstrikes occurred, the U.S. withdrew key personnel from this base. This withdrawal highlights the vulnerability of U.S. military bases amidst regional tensions.
Interestingly, Araghchi has also engaged with Arab leaders to justify Iran’s actions. Many Gulf states resent the involvement of Iranian proxies in places like Lebanon and Iraq. Yet, there’s a shared concern about the destabilizing effects of regime change prompted by popular protests—something that could lead to the fragmentation of Iran itself or other countries in the region.
For example, Saudi Arabia has recently stifled a rebellion in southern Yemen to preserve national unity. Meanwhile, Egypt’s military government is focused on curbing human rights reforms to maintain stability.
As regional tensions continue, calls for dialogue are growing. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, emphasized that addressing these challenges requires returning to the negotiating table. The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, also expressed hope for a resolution between the U.S. and Iran, whether through mediators or direct talks.
In summary, the Middle East remains a complex landscape of alliances and rivalries, where diplomacy plays a crucial role in preventing chaos.
For more insights on Middle Eastern diplomacy, check out the Council on Foreign Relations.
