A recent poll from Emerson College reveals a shift in Texas’s Senate race. State Rep. James Talarico now leads U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 9 percentage points among likely Democratic voters. This is a notable change from December, when Crockett was ahead.
In the latest survey of 413 voters, Talarico, from Austin, received 47% support compared to Crockett’s 38%. About 15% of those surveyed remain undecided as the March 3 primary approaches.
Previously, a Texas Southern University poll showed Crockett ahead by 8 points, but that was shortly after she joined the race. Talarico has made gains among Latino and white voters, while Crockett enjoys strong backing from Black voters, capturing 80% of that demographic.
The swing in support seems related to Talarico’s success among men and Latino voters, while Crockett’s lead has narrowed among women and older voters. In contrast, the Republican side shows a tight race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, with neither candidate currently above 30%. If no one secures 50% in March, a runoff will occur in May.
The Emerson poll indicates a dead heat with Paxton at 27% and Cornyn at 26%. This race remains close, with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16%. Despite heavy spending by Cornyn’s allies, both candidates have struggled to gain a solid majority of support.
Democrats debate which nominee, Talarico or Crockett, has a better chance to break the party’s losing streak in statewide elections. The poll suggests Talarico might perform slightly better against potential Republican opponents. Both Cornyn and Hunt are ahead of Crockett by 5 points and Talarico by 3.
Interestingly, the Emerson survey highlights that voters are concerned with shifting priorities. The economy tops the list of issues, with 28% considering it the most pressing. Immigration and threats to democracy follow, marking a change in what’s prioritized by Texans.
Additionally, former President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Texas has dropped. In August, he had a net approval rating of +7, but this has now decreased to +2, indicating rising discontent among voters.
This evolving political landscape illustrates the dynamics of Texas politics, where voter opinions can shift dramatically over time, influenced by demographics and pressing issues. For more details, visit Emerson College.
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2026 elections,Congress,elections,James Talarico,Jasmine Felicia Crockett,John Cornyn,Ken Paxton,U.S. Senate,Wesley Hunt
