The ocean plays a vital role in our lives. It provides food, supports trade, and protects coastlines from storms. But so far, many assessments of climate damage have overlooked the ocean’s plight. A recent study has changed that.
This study highlights the economic costs associated with ocean damage due to climate change. When ocean impacts are considered, the cost of carbon pollution nearly doubles. In simpler terms, we can no longer ignore how rising emissions harm our oceans, and this could have serious implications for society.
For years, oceans have absorbed a significant amount of carbon dioxide. This has led to warmer waters, which stress coral reefs and kelp forests. Increased acidity makes it hard for shellfish to thrive. In some places, fish are fleeing because of decreasing oxygen levels, affecting local communities that rely on them for food and income.
The effects of climate change aren’t just future problems; they’re happening now. Coastal areas face stronger storms, leading to more flooding and damage. These changes impact food prices, jobs, and public health. Unfortunately, traditional economic models have mostly focused on land-based issues like heat waves and rising food costs, leaving the ocean’s challenges largely ignored.
Researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego have started addressing this gap. Their work shows that the social cost of carbon—a measure of the economic harm caused by carbon emissions—jumps from $51 to $97.2 per ton when ocean damage is factored in. This is a dramatic 91% increase. According to environmental economist Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, “If we don’t put a price tag on the harm that climate change causes to the ocean, it will be invisible to key decision makers.”
These figures matter. Government agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency use them to shape policies. In 2024, global carbon emissions hit around 41.6 billion tons, which means nearly $2 trillion in ocean-related harm that standard estimates often miss.
The research considers not just market losses but also non-market impacts. For instance, reduced access to seafood affects nutrition and health. A decline in healthy reefs and beaches lowers tourism and recreational opportunities. These factors combine to project annual market damages from ocean harm reaching $1.66 trillion by 2100, plus additional costs from lost ocean ecosystems and nutrition.
Bastien-Olvera cautions that these figures should not be seen as interchangeable. Losing a fishing job is not the same as losing a cultural tradition tied to the sea.
The study introduces the “blue” social cost of carbon. This concept helps consider environmental trade-offs more clearly. Climate scientist Kate Ricke emphasizes that the ocean’s value is hard to quantify but is crucial to acknowledge in decision-making.
Ocean damage is not evenly distributed. Small island nations and coastal economies bear a disproportionate share of these risks, especially as warming oceans reduce vital nutrients in fish and shellfish. This can heighten health risks, increasing the likelihood of disease and mortality.
Understanding the social cost of carbon allows industries and governments to take a more holistic view of their emissions. By finally including ocean impacts in climate discussions, we begin to acknowledge the integral role oceans play in our societies.
For more insights, you can find the full study published in Nature Climate Change.
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