Experts predict that 2026 will likely be one of the hottest years on record. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) reported this forecast, which aligns with global temperature predictions. Despite this alarming trend, Canada is struggling to meet its promised reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
According to ECCC, 2026 will mark the 13th consecutive year that global temperatures surpass pre-industrial levels by at least 1.0 degree Celsius. There’s a 12% chance that temperatures may even exceed the critical Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees. This benchmark aims to limit severe climate change impacts.
The government assures that exceeding 1.5 degrees doesn’t mean failing the Paris Agreement. Yet, forecasts suggest that the years from 2026 to 2030 might be the hottest ever recorded. As of now, Canada is on track to miss its emissions targets for both 2026 and 2030. A November 2025 report revealed that Canada aims for a 40 to 45% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. However, it’s only estimated to achieve about a 21% reduction with current policies. Even with some announced plans that haven’t yet been implemented, the projected reduction only climbs to 28% — still far below the target.
Keith Brooks from Environmental Defence voiced concern, questioning how the government can label climate action as “a moral obligation” while supporting new fossil fuel projects. In January 2026, the government emphasized its commitment to tighten methane regulations. However, it granted Alberta, responsible for the highest emissions due to its oil and gas sector, an extra five years to comply. This delay could release an additional 1.9 million tonnes of methane, equivalent to the emissions of about half the cars on Canada’s roads.
Fossil fuel combustion is a major cause of climate change, making it crucial to reduce emissions in the oil and gas sector to achieve climate goals. The ECCC highlighted that Canada is warming at more than double the global rate. The northern regions are especially affected, experiencing temperatures that rise about three times as fast as elsewhere. The increased temperatures have led to extreme weather events, including the deadly heat dome in British Columbia in 2021. Analysts confirm that climate change is driving these extreme heat events.
While 2026 is expected to be incredibly hot, early forecasts suggest that 2024 may remain the hottest year on record, with temperatures reaching 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This unprecedented heat can be attributed to strong El Niño events and ongoing human-induced climate warming. Experts emphasize the urgency of addressing climate change, as the current trend shows no signs of slowing down.
For additional details, you may refer to the [ECCC report](https://changingclimate.ca/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/CCCR_FULLREPORT-EN-FINAL.pdf).
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