Some long-time residents of the mid-Atlantic recall the great freeze of 1977. That winter, deep and lasting cold transformed much of the Chesapeake Bay into a frozen landscape. Shipping routes were disrupted, boats were trapped in ice, and many people flocked to the Bay Bridge to skate on the thick ice.
Today, Maryland is facing another cold snap. With temperatures dipping into the single digits, people wonder if we might see a repeat of those ice-skating days. However, experts say that’s unlikely.
Currently, only about 11% of the Bay is covered in ice, mostly in northern areas where salt levels are low. Last winter, around this same time, nearly half of the Bay was frozen. Hali Kilbourne, a climate scientist from the University of Maryland, explains that for ice coverage like in 1977 to happen, there needs to be a prolonged period of extreme cold.
Kilbourne notes that the freeze of 1977 lasted almost two months. Today’s cold snap is just a week long, making substantial ice coverage improbable. The shallow parts near Smith and Tangier Islands may see some icy patches, but they won’t be thick enough for skating.
Victoria Coles, another researcher at the University of Maryland, adds that it takes a lot of energy to cool and heat water. For widespread ice to form, we need a much colder fall to lower the water temperatures, followed by sustained winter chilling. Low winds are also essential since they can stir saltwater, making freezing more difficult.
As of now, thin pancake ice can be seen in some areas, while thicker ice forms at the edges where it is shallower. Icebreakers like the Eddie Somers, operated by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, are currently working to ensure safe navigation for local watermen and clear channels.
Climate change is changing the game. Significant freezes in the Bay have become rare over the decades. A brief study from NASA’s James L. Foster notes that winters with extensive ice are becoming less frequent. In the past, many winters saw almost complete ice coverage, especially after prolonged periods of Arctic air.
The last few decades have marked a stark decline in these events. As we approach future winters, social media is buzzing with nostalgia for those ice-laden days. Pictures pop up online, sharing memories of skating adventures on the frozen Bay.
Weather patterns shift, making each winter unpredictable, reminding us that while the chill may return, the spectacular freezes of the past might just be part of history. For those yearning for a winter wonderland, it seems we might need to settle for milder winter days instead.
To learn more about the changes in the Chesapeake Bay’s ice coverage, you can visit a detailed historical overview by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
