A large asteroid named 2024 YR4 will come close to Earth in 2032, and there’s a chance it could hit the Moon. If it does, we might see a spectacular flash from Earth, along with possible meteor showers and an afterglow that lingers for hours.
Originally, scientists were worried about this asteroid because it was deemed potentially hazardous, with about a 3% chance of hitting Earth. Luckily, that risk has dropped to almost nothing, but there’s still a 4.3% chance it could collide with the Moon, releasing energy similar to about 8 megatons of TNT.
Researchers ran 10,000 simulations to predict where 2024 YR4 might land on the Moon. The findings suggest that if it strikes, it could create the most powerful lunar impact ever recorded. This study, led by astronomer Martin Connors from Canada and accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, highlights how significant this event could be.
In terms of visibility, the impact would create a flash brighter than Venus, the second brightest object in our night sky. This flash would be visible to the naked eye for several minutes. After the impact, we could see an infrared glow that lasts for hours.
Furthermore, the collision could eject up to 220 million pounds of lunar rock into space, leading to meteor showers that could last for days.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, 2024 YR4 was then 515,116 miles away from Earth. Its next close pass will be in December 2028, giving scientists time to prepare and observe.
If 2024 YR4 ends up hitting the Moon, it could offer an invaluable opportunity for scientists to study the impact and witness the formation of a new crater. Historically, asteroids have shaped our celestial bodies, and this event could add another chapter to our understanding of space.
Keeping track of asteroids like 2024 YR4 is essential. According to NASA, there are over 26,000 near-Earth objects identified so far. Continuous observation and research can help us better prepare for any potential threats.
The possibility of a lunar impact from this asteroid excites scientists and stirs public interest, often trending on social media platforms. Many people are curious about space and eager to learn how cosmic events might affect our planet.
For more details, you can check out the full findings on the preprint server arXiv.
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