More than 295 million people faced hunger in 2025 due to factors like conflict, displacement, climate change, and economic issues. Alarmingly, my research suggests that by 2100, climate change could drive more than a billion people into severe food crises. This isn’t just a statistic; it reflects the grim future that could impact everyone alive today and those yet to be born.
As a quantitative ecologist, I analyze how our environment and human behavior react to major pressures like climate change. I’ve built an AI model to predict the extent of food crises brought about by climate change. This model uses past and current data on food insecurity, as well as climate data, to draw insights. Unfortunately, detailed socio-economic data—which can be essential for predictions—often isn’t available or is hard to forecast.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, over 1.1 billion people, including more than 600 million children, will face at least one severe food crisis by 2100. Africa will be particularly hard hit. It’s estimated that more than 170 million people on the continent could experience severe food shortages by 2099. That number is comparable to the combined populations of Italy, France, and Spain today.
Healthy ecosystems can help ease food insecurity, according to experts. For instance, Dr. Jane Goodall has emphasized the role of sustainable practices and community involvement in agriculture as key to addressing food crises. Studies indicate that regions with strong local food systems tend to withstand climate shocks better.
However, there is a silver lining. If the global community shifts towards renewable energy and sustainable practices, we could reduce the number of people facing food crises dramatically. In fact, projections show that transitioning to sustainable development could spare about 780 million people from hunger by 2100. It’s estimated that if we aggressively reduce carbon emissions, the average number of people experiencing food crises annually could drop from 89 million to 42 million by the end of the century.
Most future food crises are expected to occur in already vulnerable areas, especially in Africa and Asia. The Horn of Africa and parts of the Sahel are identified as critical hotspots where emergencies may unfold on a vast scale.
Interestingly, if Africa cuts conflicts and fossil fuel usage, food crisis exposure could decline significantly after 2050. This hints that the continent has a better chance than Asia to improve its food security through sustainable development.
Climate change poses significant risks, but policy decisions will determine the severity of these risks. By choosing to promote decarbonization and sustainable development, we can protect millions from hunger. Conversely, failing to take action could lead to dire consequences.
It’s crucial to understand that increasing food production alone won’t solve the problem. Food security depends on resilient food systems that can withstand climate impacts. A coordinated global effort prioritizing equity, peace, and adaptation is essential.
As we face an urgent challenge, it’s our responsibility to ensure future generations have the food security they need. The time to act is now, as we owe it to today’s children and those yet to come.
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