In the early hours of February 24, 2022, as I stood on a chilly hotel rooftop in Kyiv, the thought of Russia actually launching a full-scale assault on Ukraine felt surreal. Yes, there had been a troop buildup at the border, but it still seemed unlikely.
Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia, is no stranger to military actions. His previous incursions into Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria had mostly worked in his favor without heavy costs. But invading Ukraine, the second-largest country in Europe, posed a different risk altogether. Surely, even a strategist like Putin would hesitate.
Yet, that wasn’t the case. As I clutched my flak jacket, missiles were already striking Kyiv, shattering the illusion of stability. Over the past few years, many people believed Ukraine was too weak to mount any form of real resistance against a massive military like Russia. That belief has now been proven wrong, as Ukraine put up a surprisingly strong defense.
Interest in this conflict has exposed major miscalculations, notably regarding the effectiveness of the Russian military. Research from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) revealed that when the conflict started, Russian forces assumed they would control Ukraine in just ten days. Fast forward over 1,450 days, and that expectation seems laughably naive. The toll of this miscalculation has been catastrophic, resulting in widespread destruction and immense loss of life.
Recent data shows the staggering human cost. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, almost 1.2 million Russian soldiers have died or been injured since the invasion began. This figure is staggering—higher than any major loss endured by a power in a war since World War II. Ukrainian casualties are also alarming, estimated between 500,000 and 600,000.
As the conflict drags on into a fifth year, military leaders in Ukraine now aim to outpace Russian troop reinforcements. Ukraine’s Defense Minister even mentioned that a significant Russian troop loss would disrupt their capacity to fight, considering the challenges in replacing those lost.
Despite the grim scenario, life in Moscow often seems untouched by the chaotic realities of war. Cafés buzz, shops are stocked, and traffic flows. In the aftermath of initial sanctions, Russia’s military spending increased. Fueled by oil and gas, the country’s economy has risen to become the ninth largest in the world, surpassing Canada and Brazil according to the International Monetary Fund.
However, the internal economic landscape shows signs of distress. High military recruitment costs and extensive bonuses for soldiers are draining resources. The demand for labor in military industries has caused shortages in crucial sectors, as highlighted by Russian media reporting a need for hundreds of thousands of workers.
Crucially, consumer prices are rising, particularly for staples. Cucumber prices have doubled recently, sparking discontent among Russians, who took to social media to voice their frustrations. It’s a reflection of broader economic issues, including galloping inflation and tax increases, impacting everyday lives.
Internationally, the Kremlin’s stance has weakened. One stated reason for invading Ukraine was to prevent NATO expansion. Ironically, the invasion has led Finland and Sweden to join NATO, enhancing security against Russia. The situation has forced Russia to lean heavily on China for trade, an arrangement that some analysts describe as a shaky dependency.
As the war drags on, Russia’s standing in global politics continues to decline. Events in Syria and Venezuela have shown Moscow’s inability to protect its allies. After four years of costly conflict, Russia is weaker domestically and internationally.
Reflecting back on that day in Kyiv, many, including myself, misjudged Putin’s willingness to invade. But the catastrophic fallout that followed was unfortunately predictable, with lasting impacts on both Ukraine and Russia.
