Phoenix has just wrapped up its warmest meteorological winter on record. For three straight days, temperatures hit record highs, peaking at 92 degrees on February 27. This kind of warmth is unusual for this time of year, with temperatures typically around 74 degrees.
Experts say this extreme winter heat stems from a mix of factors, notably La Niña and climate change. La Niña typically brings drier and hotter conditions, which leads to less snowfall in the West. “In a way, it’s like our winters are becoming more humid,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central.
According to data from the National Weather Service, only two winters in Phoenix’s history have been hotter than this year. Notably, all but two of the top ten warmest winters have occurred since 2000, highlighting a worrying trend.
This year, winter temperatures were about 3 degrees higher than last year’s record, prompting concerns among both residents and specialists. Arizona’s state climatologist, Erinanne Saffell, noted, “Drier weather can allow for hotter temperatures,” which means a less reliable snowpack that many water systems depend on. Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index also indicates that warmer temperatures this year were at least twice as likely due to climate change.
Statistics show that since 1970, temperatures during Phoenix winters have risen by around 3.1 degrees. While this might seem minor, Winkley points out that it has far-reaching effects. “If your body temperature rose by three degrees, you would feel unwell,” he explains. This winter’s heat means increased concern for Arizona’s water supply, as states in the West continue to face a snow drought.
As warmer winters disrupt traditional weather patterns, the implications are serious. The Colorado River, essential for many in Arizona, relies on snowpack melt to replenish its supplies. But warmer temperatures this year likely mean a lower water supply, with forecasts suggesting Lake Powell might only get half of its normal water this season.
The impact doesn’t stop there. An early warming trend can also trigger an earlier wildfire season. “We could be looking at increased fire risks depending on how things shape up in the coming months,” Crimmins warns. The potential for bigger fires looms as the region grapples with these changes.
Despite these challenges, spring may bring a different outlook. Experts are cautiously optimistic that La Niña might shift to more neutral conditions soon, providing a chance for snow and replenishment in the coming months. Arizonans can only wait and see what the new season will bring.
For more on environmental changes and impacts, you can check out the NOAA Climate.gov for resources and data.
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