China is closely watching the situation as the U.S. and Israel launch attacks on Iran. Iran is a key partner for China, especially in energy. In fact, by 2025, more than half of China’s oil imports will come from the Middle East, including about 13% from Iran. Most of this oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway. If this supply is disrupted, it could impact China’s energy security significantly.
Despite its concerns, China is unlikely to intervene directly. After Israel’s earlier campaign against Iran in June 2025, China offered only mild diplomatic support rather than military aid. Just recently, the Chinese government condemned the assassination of Iran’s leader but called for a general halt to military actions, urging respect for all Gulf states involved.
China’s cautious stance is rooted in a deeper disillusionment with Iran. Since the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023, Chinese strategists have started to doubt Iran’s ability to exert power in the region. Many analysts believe Iran has yielded too easily to Western demands, which could undermine its authority.
China’s longstanding relationship with Iran was once seen as a strategic foothold in the Middle East. In 2021, both countries signed a significant 25-year, $400 billion partnership aimed at strengthening economic ties. However, many of these plans have stalled, as Tehran fears losing sovereignty to China’s influence, while Beijing grows frustrated with Iran’s inconsistency.
Interestingly, while Iran’s population is larger than Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s, its economy is less robust. Many Chinese observers believe Iran’s strengths are exaggerated, masked by its approach to proxy conflicts. Iran’s recent actions—like its underwhelming military responses to attacks on its leaders—have diminished Chinese confidence further. Chinese commentators have pointed out Iran’s failures to support its allies effectively, leading to skepticism about its future.
The context is becoming more complex as changes occur within the global energy landscape. While China has diversified its energy supply, oil remains crucial for its economy. About 30% of China’s oil needs rely on imports, and any disruption to supplies would create a significant crisis. Chinese energy experts argue that a long-term closure of the Strait would provoke a global response to restore normalcy.
As tensions rise, China is now balancing its interest in Iranian oil with its diplomatic relations, particularly with the U.S. Analysts suggest that if the conflict escalates and Iran resists effectively, China might feel compelled to offer support—similar to its assistance to Russia during the Ukraine conflict. However, if the conflict resolves quickly, Beijing may not prioritize support for Iran, reflecting its waning faith in the current regime.
In summary, while China has vested interests in Iran, its concerns about stability, global energy security, and diplomatic relations are shaping its cautious approach. The outcome of the current conflict will have meaningful impacts, not only on Iran’s future but also on China’s strategy in the Middle East.
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