Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto recently visited New Delhi from January 23 to 26, where he was the chief guest at India’s 76th Republic Day parade. During his stay, both nations agreed to strengthen ties in key areas such as maritime security, cyber security, defense manufacturing, and supply chain development.
They signed five important agreements focusing on maritime safety, health, traditional medicine, digital development, and cultural exchange. A notable agreement aims to tackle online radicalization and combat extremist ideologies. Prabowo highlighted that Indonesia is keen on opening its infrastructure sector, like ports and railways, to Indian businesses.
One significant expectation from the visit was the announcement of a multi-million-dollar deal for Indonesia to buy the Indian-made BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. Leading up to the visit, Indian media speculated that a $450 million deal was imminent, especially after previous budgetary hurdles were addressed. However, no formal announcement was made about this deal during Prabowo’s visit. A senior official from India’s Ministry of External Affairs mentioned there were broad discussions on defense cooperation but did not provide specifics about the BrahMos missile deal.
While Prabowo met with the CEO of BrahMos and discussed defense matters with Indian leaders, reports indicated minimal progress was made in these negotiations. A high-ranking Indonesian defense team is expected to visit India soon to continue discussions related to defense cooperation.
Concerns about financial constraints and Indonesia’s wariness of China could be influencing their hesitance to finalize the missile purchase. Although India may offer a line of credit to facilitate the deal, Indonesia still seeks further conversations before making any commitments. The country’s caution about how China might respond remains a significant concern.
Progress on the strategic Sabang port project also seems limited, despite a feasibility report completed in May 2023. Similar connectivity projects connecting Indonesia’s Aceh and India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands are still in early stages.
Although separated by the vast Bay of Bengal, India and Indonesia share a maritime border through the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Their relations date back over two millennia, marked by rich cultural exchanges and trade. Both countries experienced colonial rule and supported each other during their independence struggles, which influenced their cooperative efforts in the Non-Aligned Movement.
However, relations soured in the following decades. Indonesia did not support India during the 1962 China-India conflict and even backed Pakistan in the 1965 India-Pakistan war. Fortunately, ties have strengthened in recent years, with increased cooperation in economics and defense. Today, Indonesia is more sensitive to India’s positions, particularly concerning the Kashmir issue during discussions within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
Despite improvements, the full potential of India-Indonesia cooperation is not yet realized. Bilateral trade has grown to $29.4 billion, but this still falls short of the $50 billion target set for 2025, and India faces a growing trade deficit with Indonesia. Since 2011, the two countries have been trying to negotiate a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with limited results.
Security collaboration has enhanced through naval exercises and exchanges, though past tensions remind India to approach this partnership cautiously. A significant challenge lies in dealing with Indonesia’s reluctance to invite extra-regional powers into the area, mirroring Indonesia’s sensitivity regarding its sovereignty.
Both nations face the influence of China, which further encourages collaboration in security matters. However, Prabowo’s commitment to Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy means he is unlikely to take a strong stance against China, despite India’s concerns. New Delhi must navigate these complexities to align its interests with Jakarta’s policies regarding China.
Moving forward, India and Indonesia should explore cooperation areas beyond just countering China’s influence to foster a more robust, mutually beneficial partnership.
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