The U.S. and Israel misjudged Iran’s strength, and a regime collapse seems unlikely. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz, associated with the Atlantic Council, shared insights suggesting that hopes for quick regime change were overly optimistic. “Ground troops would be a risky move,” he warned. “We thought airstrikes could easily topple a weak regime, but there’s more resilience than it appears.”
After the death of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during airstrikes, his son, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, emerged as the new leader. Citrinowicz does not see this as a victory for the U.S., stating, “The regime isn’t going to surrender.” He believes the new leader might push toward developing nuclear weapons, an option the late Ayatollah feared.
“It’s likely they’ll seek a nuclear bomb as a deterrent against future attacks,” he said. Drawing from his 25 years in Israeli military intelligence, Citrinowicz is skeptical about U.S. and Israeli strategies, suggesting they underestimated the regime’s durability.
U.S. President Trump has been vague about a timeline for ending the conflict, suggesting progress but admitting that complete victory is still out of reach. When asked if he could declare victory with the supreme leader still in place, he avoided a direct answer.
Moreover, Gulf states are increasingly caught in the conflict, facing missile and drone strikes from Iran. Citrinowicz speculates this could be a tactic to pressure the U.S. and Israel into ceasing military operations, as these states might not withstand prolonged attacks. “They perceive the Gulf States to be vulnerable,” he noted.
Recent surveys indicate that public opinion in the U.S. is heavily divided on the ongoing conflict, with many citizens questioning the effectiveness of military interventions. As tensions rise, social media has become a platform for discussions, with hashtags related to the conflict trending as people share their views and news updates.
Overall, the situation remains complex, with strategic miscalculations and shifting dynamics at play, illustrating that quick resolutions in such conflicts are often far from reality.
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