A leading scientist predicts that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, thanks to climate change and a strong El Niño effect that will push temperatures even higher.
Currently, the hottest year logged was 2024, when temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This year, we’re likely to see El Niño arrive. This natural climate cycle warms up ocean waters in the Pacific, causing temperatures across the globe to rise. Some experts think this El Niño could be the strongest we’ve witnessed. As it builds in strength, many expect that 2027 will see even higher temperatures.
James Hansen from Columbia University, known for warning Congress about climate change in 1988, believes that 2026 will break records. In a recent blog, he stated that while 2027 will also be extremely hot, 2026 isn’t far behind.
For now, cooler conditions are still present, thanks to La Niña, which typically counteracts warming. In early 2026, temperatures were about 0.1°C cooler compared to the same period in 2024. To surpass that record, 2026 needs to heat up considerably during the rest of the year.
Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth has projected that 2026 could be 1.47°C above pre-industrial averages, potentially making it the second hottest year ever. However, Hansen and his team believe this estimate is too low. They suggest that the rate of global warming could be accelerating faster than current models indicate.
Hansen’s team points to rising sea surface temperatures as evidence of this acceleration. They noted that global temperatures are already 0.17°C warmer than in 2023, contrasting with a smaller increase of 0.11°C during the previous El Niño.
Others, like Adam Scaife from the UK Met Office, express caution. Scaife notes the inherent uncertainty in long-term climate predictions. While they forecast a temperature increase for 2026, they acknowledge a range of possible outcomes.
El Niño’s warming effects are expected to lead to more extreme weather events globally. Areas such as Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa may face severe heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.
As Hansen points out, the combination of El Niño and ongoing global warming is likely to result in unprecedented weather challenges. The stakes are high, and understanding the climate’s trajectory is crucial for communities around the globe.
For more about the impacts of climate change, you can check the World Meteorological Organization for the latest forecasts and insights.
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