South Africa is currently facing mild food price inflation. In March 2026, the food inflation rate dropped to 3.4%, down from 3.7% in February. Although prices are stabilizing locally, there are ongoing concerns about high food prices globally, primarily due to disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This has affected fuel and fertilizer supplies, and worries about how El Niño could impact agricultural production loom for the upcoming season.
Globally, agricultural supplies seem solid for now. On May 8, 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a slight rise in its Food Price Index, which climbed to an average of 130.7 points in April—up 2% from March. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, driven mostly by rising prices for vegetable oils, meat, and cereals.
Comparing this situation to past crises, the current food price index is still 18% lower than it was during the height of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022. Economists argue that while prices are rising, the market conditions are different today.
One key difference is the abundance of global grain supplies. The International Grains Council estimated a 9% increase in global grains and oilseed production for the 2025-26 season, reaching about 2.5 billion tonnes. Major producing regions contributed to this, especially for wheat, maize, and rice. For instance, the global wheat harvest is expected to hit a record 845 million tonnes, while maize production is projected at 1.3 billion tonnes.
Another factor is that the Middle East is primarily a grain importer. The ongoing conflict there isn’t likely to spark an immediate price surge, but the impact on the fertilizer market could be felt in the 2026-27 season, leading to concerns about 2027 and 2028.
Experts suggest keeping watch on fertilizer prices. They could dictate how much farmers plant moving forward. If rising costs lead to less land being tilled, we may see a more significant price impact down the line. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere have begun their planting, while those in the Southern Hemisphere will start in October.
In short, while the situation appears stable at the moment, a closer look at upcoming seasons is crucial. As the year progresses, we’ll get a clearer picture of how various factors might influence food prices in the near future. For more detailed insights, check out this FAO report.
