India’s gas consumption is expected to rise sharply, jumping by 60% to reach 103 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2030. This increase will also cause liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to more than double. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this shift suggests that India might need to further liberalize its domestic gas market as global supply is predicted to increase.
Currently, gas makes up a bit over 6% of India’s energy mix. The IEA’s report, released during India Energy Week, shows a plan to raise this share to 15%. If things go as planned, there’s potential for growth to hit approximately 120 bcm—similar to South America’s gas usage today.
Domestic gas production is not expected to grow much by 2030. As a result, LNG imports will play a vital role in meeting future demand. The report warns that the gap between LNG supply and needs may widen significantly after 2028, leaving India vulnerable to fluctuations in global LNG prices unless new contracts are signed soon.
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s director of energy markets and security, noted that while demand will jump, it coincides with a new wave of global LNG supply. This requires smart planning to secure stable supplies and help gas compete effectively in a market sensitive to price changes.
The growth in gas consumption will largely be driven by the city gas distribution sector. With rapid expansion in compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and competitive pricing, this sector is set to take the lead. Heavy industry and manufacturing will add around 15 bcm to the demand during this period, and gas use in oil refining is projected to increase by over 4 bcm as more refineries connect to the gas network.
In 2023 and 2024, demand has risen by more than 10%, marking a significant turning point. This growth is fueled by rapid infrastructure development and policy support, according to the report. Currently, domestic gas production meets about half of the nation’s demand. By 2030, production could reach just below 38 bcm—only about 8% more than in 2023. Thus, LNG imports will need to exceed 65 bcm annually to fill the gap.
The report also emphasizes the importance of strategic planning for LNG imports and associated infrastructure. As old contracts end, India needs to address the widening gap between supply and demand post-2028. If not, the country may face increased reliance on the more unpredictable spot market for LNG.
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